Reading SPB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SPB free→Reading SPB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SPB free→NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $84.06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $85 SPB trades at 14× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $105 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 20% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.62x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.51 → $1.49 (-1.4% / 30d). 3 raised, 4 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 63% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$135.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$341.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,575.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can show consumer spending trends. This is important for Spectrum Brands as it affects demand for their products.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease by more than 0.5% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Oaktree deal suggests strategic partnership potential.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. On May 7, 2026, the Company issued a press release (the “Earnings Press Release”) discussing, among other things, its financial results for its fiscal second quarter ended March 29, 2026. A copy of th…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Household Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SPB Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CL Colgate-Palmolive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | full | moderate |
KMB Kimberly-Clark | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CHD Church & Dwight | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | low |
CLX Clorox | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims for flat to low single-digit revenue growth for fiscal 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $677M in 2026-Q1 to $708.9M in 2026-Q2, indicating progress towards the flat to low single-digit growth target. The trajectory is delivering on management's stated priority.
“We are reiterating our earnings framework of flat to low single digit revenue growth.”
“Fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase by low single digits.”
“For Fiscal 2026, the Company Expects to Deliver Flat to Low Single-Digit Net Sales Growth”
Management targets approximately 50% conversion of Adjusted EBITDA to Adjusted Free Cash Flow.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has consistently targeted a 50% conversion rate of Adjusted EBITDA to Free Cash Flow. However, specific financial data on the conversion rate is not provided in the current inputs, indicating limited visibility into delivery.
“Approximately 50% Conversion of Adjusted EBITDA to Adjusted Free Cash Flow.”
Entered into a strategic investment agreement with Oaktree Capital for the Home and Personal Care business.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The company secured a $127 million investment from Oaktree Capital for its Home and Personal Care business, marking a strategic move to bolster this segment. This is a new initiative with potential growth implications.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift in the sector. This would help Spectrum Brands stand out in a maturing market.
Confirms:Revenue growth for the Consumer Staples sector exceeds 4% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can affect consumer spending and borrowing costs. This impacts how much consumers spend on Spectrum Brands' products.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by more than 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Other Events. On May 1, 2026, Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. (“Parent”) entered into a definitive agreement, through its indirect subsidiaries, for a strategic investment from funds affiliated with Oaktree Capital Management L.P. (“Oaktree”) in its Home and Personal Care (“HPC”) business for $127 million in cash, before transaction fees. The investment by Oaktree consists of $67 million in the form of convertible preferred equity (“HPC Preferred Equity”) and $60 million in the form of a first…
and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. On February 5, 2026, the Company issued a press release (the “Earnings Press Release”) discussing, among other things, its financial results for its fiscal first quarter ended December 28, 2025. A cop…
and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. On November 13, 2025, the Company issued a press release (the “Earnings Press Release”) discussing, among other things, its financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter ended September 30, 2025. A…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On September 3, 2025, Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a separation agreement with Mr. Jeremy W. Smeltser, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (the “Smeltser Separation Agreement”). The Smeltser Separation Agreement was entered into by the Company in furtherance of its prior stated objective of reducing i…
“Adjusted free cash flow is expected to be approximately 50% of adjusted EBITDA.”
“Targeting Approximately 50% Conversion of Adjusted EBITDA to Adjusted Free Cash Flow”
“Entered into a definitive agreement for a strategic investment from Oaktree Capital in its Home and Personal Care business.”