Reading CL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CL free→Reading CL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CL free→NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $90.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $91 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 18× p/e peer median but in line with its own 25× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $73 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $79–$102. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 24% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.08x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.95 → $0.95 (-0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 14 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 62% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.4% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$102.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$219.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,865.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Weak organic sales growth shows problems in the market. This could affect future plans.
Confirms:Q2 organic sales growth was less than 1%.
Disproves:Q2 organic sales growth was more than 4%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 1, 2026, Colgate-Palmolive Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. This press release is attached as Exhibit 99 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$79.00 – $102.00 (median $99.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Household Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CL Colgate-Palmolive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | full | moderate |
KMB Kimberly-Clark | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CHD Church & Dwight | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | low |
CLX Clorox | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
REYN Reynolds Consumer Products | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on aligning organizational structure and optimizing the global supply chain to support strategic initiatives.
Target net sales growth of 2% to 6%, including a positive impact from foreign exchange.
Enhance supply chain agility and efficiency as part of the Strategic Growth and Productivity Program.
Why it matters: Changes in market share can indicate competitive strength and brand health in a key category.
Confirms one read:Toothpaste market share increases above 41.5%.
Confirms the other:Toothpaste market share decreases below 40.5%.
Why it matters: Updates on this program will show how well Colgate is aligning operations for future growth.
Confirms:Management shares new plans or updates on the SGPP.
Disproves:Management reports delays or issues in the SGPP.
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. As previously disclosed, on July 31, 2025, the Company’s Board of Directors (“Board”) approved a three-year productivity program to drive future growth and support the Company’s 2030 strategy (the “Strategic Growth and Productivity Program”). The program includes initiatives to better align the Company’s organizational structure to support its strategic initiatives, optimize the Company’s global supply chain to drive agility and efficiencies…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Jennifer M. Daniels, who has served as Chief Legal Officer and Secretary of Colgate-Palmolive Company (the “Company”) since 2014, has communicated to the Company her intention to retire from the Company in 2026. As a result, on April 8, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”) elected Betsy Fishbone, currently Executive Vice Presid…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 12, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Colgate-Palmolive Company (“Colgate-Palmolive”) elected Christopher S. Boerner, Ph.D., Board Chair and Chief Executive Officer of Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (“Bristol Myers Squibb”), to the Colgate-Palmolive Board, effective March 15, 2026. Dr. Boerner, 55, has served as Chief Executive O…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 30, 2026, Colgate-Palmolive Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. This press release is attached as Exhibit 99 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in