Reading CENTA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CENTA free→Reading CENTA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CENTA free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with CENTA trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.94. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $38 CENTA trades at 13× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $48 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 21% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.91x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.52 → $1.52 (-0.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$96.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$232.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,951.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Confirming the EPS guidance of $2.70 or better shows strong financial health. It reflects effective management and growth potential.
Confirms:Management says fiscal 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS will be $2.70 or more.
Disproves:Management lowers EPS guidance to below $2.70 for fiscal 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CENTA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On May 6, 2026, Central Garden & Pet Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter fiscal year 2026 ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Household Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CENTA Central Garden & Pet Company (Class A) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CL Colgate-Palmolive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | full | moderate |
KMB Kimberly-Clark | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CHD Church & Dwight | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | low |
CLX Clorox | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Central Garden & Pet aims to achieve a non-GAAP diluted EPS of $2.70 or better for fiscal 2026.
Central plans to maintain capital expenditures between $50 million and $60 million for fiscal 2026.
Central aims to strengthen its focus on its branded portfolio and explore growth opportunities.
Why it matters: Sales growth shows strong demand and good operations. It affects investor trust and future earnings.
Confirms:Q2 fiscal 2026 net sales exceed $906 million, showing growth from $834 million in Q2 fiscal 2025.
Disproves:Q2 fiscal 2026 net sales fall below $906 million.
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Director On February 12, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Central Garden & Pet Company (the “Company”) appointed Kay M. Schwichtenberg to the Company’s Board effective March 1, 2026. Ms. Schwichtenberg, 73, previously served as the Company’s Executive Vice President, Animal & Public Health from April 2014 until her ret…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On February 4, 2026 , Central Garden & Pet Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter fiscal year 2026 ended December 27, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Other Events On February 11, 2026, the Board approved a $100 million increase in the Company’s authorization to repurchase shares of its common stock. Following this increase, as of February 11, 2026, the total repurchase authorization will be approximately $127 million of the Company’s outstanding common stock. Repurchases may be effected from time to time on the open market or in privately negotiated transactions, or in such other manner as determined by the Company including through plans…