Reading HNST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HNST free→Reading HNST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HNST free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and risk is elevated. Peer multiples imply a price about 73% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's trajectory. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.58. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.58, HNST's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 62× p/e (3.7× the 17× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~72% near-term growth vs our ~-8% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $2.08 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $3.00–$4.00. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 72% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.24x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.01 → $0.01 (+15.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$222.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$448.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,922.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects consumer confidence and spending, which can impact Honest Co.'s sales.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is reported above 3% for Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is reported below 1% for Q1 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HNST yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Principal Operating Officer On May 20, 2026, the Board of Directors of The Honest Company, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the promotion of Curtiss Bruce to the position of Chief Financial & Operating Officer, effective May 21, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). In this position, in addition to serving as the Company’s principal financial of…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$3.00 – $4.00 (median $3.70) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-07
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Household Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HNST Honest Co., Inc. (The) | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
CL Colgate-Palmolive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | full | moderate |
KMB Kimberly-Clark | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CHD Church & Dwight | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | low |
CLX Clorox | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated volatile grew net income 42% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=368).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company is reaffirming its full year 2026 financial outlook for revenue.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company reaffirmed its full year 2026 revenue guidance of $306 million to $312 million, despite a decrease in quarterly revenue from $97.25 million in 2025-Q1 to $78.1 million in 2026-Q1. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“The Company is reaffirming its full year 2026 financial outlook for revenue.”
“Revenue $306 million to $312 million range (or -18% to -16% compared to prior year)”
The company is reaffirming its full year 2026 financial outlook for Organic Revenue growth.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company reaffirmed its full year 2026 Organic Revenue growth guidance of 4-6%. However, revenue decreased from $97.25 million in 2025-Q1 to $78.1 million in 2026-Q1. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
“The Company is reaffirming its full year 2026 financial outlook for ... Organic Revenue growth.”
The company is reaffirming its full year 2026 financial outlook for Adjusted EBITDA.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The company provided guidance for Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $20 million to $23 million for 2026. However, operating income was negative at -$659,000 in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards this target.
“Adjusted EBITDA (2) $20 million to $23 million range.”
Why it matters: This report will show how retail sales are performing. It can impact Honest Co.'s sales outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales growth in the report exceeds 4% year over year.
Confirms the other:Retail sales growth in the report is below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choice on interest rates can change how much people spend. This affects Honest Co.'s sales.
Confirms one read:When the FOMC raises interest rates, it shows the economy is strong.
Confirms the other:If the FOMC keeps interest rates the same or lowers them, it shows the economy is weak.
of this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing made under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Other Events As previously reported, certain current and former officers and directors of The Honest Company, Inc. (“Honest” or the “Company”) have been named as defendants in derivative actions pending in the United States District Court for the Central District of California (“California Central District Court”), captioned In re The Honest Company, Inc. Derivative Litigation , Case No. 2:21-cv-09281-MCS-PLA (the “California Federal Action”), the United States District Court for the District…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 31, 2026, The Honest Company, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a First Amendment to Credit Agreement and First Amendment to Pledge and Security Agreement (the “Amendment”), among the Company, as borrower, the lenders party thereto (the “Lenders”) and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent (in such capacity, together with any successors and assigns, the “Administrative Agent”) for the Lenders. The Amendment amended the terms of…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure set forth in
“Organic Revenue growth of 4-6%.”