Reading IPAR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IPAR free→Reading IPAR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some inconsistency in cash backing reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which may concern some investors. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate, while IPAR trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $100.17. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $100 IPAR trades at 19× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median. Our $90 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 12% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.31x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.00 → $1.00 (-0.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$134.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$317.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,214.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
The signal changed to mixed. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. The management capital stance is capital unfriendly.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Confirming or revising the $1.48 billion revenue outlook is key for growth.
Confirms:Management confirms the $1.48 billion revenue outlook for the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management cuts the revenue outlook to $1.48 billion.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for IPAR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Change in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant. The Audit Committee of the Board of Directors (the “Audit Committee”) of Interparfums, Inc. (the “Company”) dismissed Forvis Mazars, LLP (“Forvis”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm effective May 8, 2026. The reports of Forvis on the Company’s consolidated financial statements as of and for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024 did not contain an adverse opinion or disclaimer of opinion and were not qualifi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Household Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
IPAR Inter Parfums, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
CL Colgate-Palmolive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | full | moderate |
KMB Kimberly-Clark | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CHD Church & Dwight | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | low |
CLX Clorox | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to uphold the revenue guidance for 2026 at $1.48 billion.
Continue to uphold the EPS guidance for 2026 at $4.85.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations to support financial stability.
Focus on driving revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Continue efforts to sustain high gross profit margins through cost management and pricing strategies.
Why it matters: Keeping the $4.85 EPS guidance is important for investor trust.
Confirms:Management confirms the $4.85 EPS guidance during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management revises the EPS guidance down from $4.85.
Why it matters: The exchange rate affects sales and profits. A good rate can improve results.
Confirms one read:The dollar/euro exchange rate strengthens to 1.15 or better.
Confirms the other:The dollar/euro exchange rate weakens to 1.20 or worse.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth would show a positive change in the business.
Confirms:Revenue growth shows signs of re-acceleration back toward previous highs.
Disproves:Revenue growth keeps slowing from current levels.
Why it matters: This change could impact financial reporting and investor trust.
Confirms:Management explains the reasons and effects of the accountant change.
Disproves:No new updates or bad effects come from the accountant change.
Why it matters: Coach's performance is important. It helps Inter Parfums make more money.
Confirms one read:Coach brand sales growth reported at 20% or more in Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:Coach brand sales decline reported in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps growth and returns. It shows how well the company operates.
Confirms:Q2 2026 cash flow from operations increases compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 2026 cash flow from operations declines compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to meeting the 2026 outlook of $1.48 billion. Strong growth signals brand strength.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 2% year-over-year.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue growth is below 2% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Changing auditors can affect how investors feel. It can also change financial reports. Understanding this is important for being clear and open.
Confirms:A press release confirming the new accountant is in place and no issues arise.
Disproves:Further issues or delays related to the change in the accountant.
Why it matters: EPS is critical for maintaining the full-year guidance of $4.85. Strong EPS reflects profitability.
Confirms:Q2 2026 EPS meets or exceeds $1.20.
Disproves:Q2 2026 EPS falls below $1.20.
Why it matters: This conflict has been a headwind for sales; monitoring its impact is crucial for future guidance.
Confirms:Sales from the Middle East show recovery or growth in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Sales from the Middle East decline further in Q2 2026.
They are as follows: The 1 st , 2 nd (consisting of a table), 3 rd through 7 th and 11 through 14 th and 16 th through 18 th full paragraphs relating to results of operations for the first quarter of 2026 Portion of the 15 th paragraph relating to advertising and promotional expense for the first quarter of 2026 The 9 th paragraph relating to the Company’s ESG rating increase The 19 th paragraph relating to balance sheet items, cash flow, inventory and long-term debt The 23 rd through 26 th p…
They are as follows: The 1st, 2nd (consisting of a table), 4th, 5th, 7th, 9th through 11th full paragraphs relating to net sales for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 Portions of the 3rd, 6th, 8th and 12th paragraphs relating to net sales for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026
They are as follows: The 1st, 2nd (consisting of a table), 3rd through 6th full paragraphs relating to operational results for the four quarter of 2025 or full year ended December 31, 2025 Portion of 7th paragraph relating to operational results for the four quarter of 2025 or full year ended December 31, 2025 The 10th, 12th through 16th full paragraphs relating to results of operations Part of the 11th paragraph relating to results of operations The 17th paragraph relating to balance sheet i…
Financial Statements and Exhibits. The 20th and 21st paragraphs relating to our cash dividend are incorporated by reference herein