Reading IPAR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IPAR free→
Inter Parfums, Inc. (IPAR)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$100.17+0.75%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some inconsistency in cash backing reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which may concern some investors. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate, while IPAR trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Household & Personal Products
- Market cap
- $3.26B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1995-05-12
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $100.17. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$89.69consensus
Range $64.09 – $98.51
vs price: +12% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$71.48consensus
Range $50.44 – $94.05
vs price: +40% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfull
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $100 IPAR trades at 19× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median. Our $90 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
19.0x
peer 17.0x · own history 0.1x
Premium
1.1x peer
233.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
12%
our forecast 5%
Our fair value
$89.69
range $64.09 – $98.36
WhyExtended vs its own history
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 12% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
65th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.31x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
32nd pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearish4 analysts, 83% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.00 → $1.00 (-0.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme private-label/value.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$134.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$317.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,214.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelmoderate change
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
The signal changed to mixed. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. The management capital stance is capital unfriendly.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 11d
Watch for Q2 revenue guidance confirmation or revision
Why it matters: Confirming or revising the $1.48 billion revenue outlook is key for growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management confirms the $1.48 billion revenue outlook for the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management cuts the revenue outlook to $1.48 billion.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for IPAR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like PG, UL, and CL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting IPAR and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If IPAR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If IPAR beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +14% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If IPAR cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like PG, UL, and CL start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping IPAR and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-131mo agoItem 4.01
Change in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant. The Audit Committee of the Board of Directors (the “Audit Committee”) of Interparfums, Inc. (the “Company”) dismissed Forvis Mazars, LLP (“Forvis”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm effective May 8, 2026. The reports of Forvis on the Company’s consolidated financial statements as of and for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024 did not contain an adverse opinion or disclaimer of opinion and were not qualifi…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.