Reading KMB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KMB free→Reading KMB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KMB free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include KMB's guidance on the next call and the performance of sector bellwethers like PG, UL, and CL. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $103.14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $103 KMB trades at 14× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $131 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $99–$110. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 21% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.51x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.02 → $2.02 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 11 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$104.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$216.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,961.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Surpassing this growth rate would show strong demand and effective product innovation.
Confirms:Organic sales growth reported above 2.5% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Organic sales growth reported below 2.0% for Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase adjusted EPS
New product supports earnings growth objective.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 1, 2026, Andrew Scribner, the Corporation’s Vice President and Controller, notified the Corporation that he will depart the Corporation effective May 22, 2026 to pursue other opportunities. The Corporation’s Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Nelson Urdaneta, will act as the Corporation’s principal accounting officer effectiv…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$99.00 – $110.00 (median $103.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-04-29
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Household Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KMB Kimberly-Clark | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CL Colgate-Palmolive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | full | moderate |
CHD Church & Dwight | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | low |
CLX Clorox | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
REYN Reynolds Consumer Products | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Kimberly-Clark aims to grow organic sales in line with or ahead of market growth.
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $4,054M in 2025-Q1 to $4,163M in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows delivering on organic sales growth, aligning with management's stated priority.
“2026 Organic Sales Growth to grow in line to ahead of the weighted average growth...”
“2025 Organic Sales Growth is expected to be broadly in line with the weighted average growth...”
“2025 Organic Sales Growth is expected to outpace the weighted average growth...”
“2025 Organic Sales Growth is expected to outpace the weighted average growth...”
“2025 Organic Sales Growth is expected to outpace the weighted average growth...”
“Organic sales grew 3.2 percent, driven by an approximately 1.9 percent increase in price...”
Kimberly-Clark aims to grow adjusted EPS at a double-digit rate on a constant-currency basis.
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Diluted EPS increased from $1.70 in 2025-Q1 to $2.00 in 2026-Q1. The trajectory indicates delivering on adjusted EPS growth, consistent with management's priority.
“Adjusted Earnings Per Share from Continuing Operations are expected to grow at a double-digit rate...”
Kimberly-Clark aims to grow adjusted operating profit at a mid-to-high single-digit rate.
Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating income increased from $631M in 2025-Q1 to $753M in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows delivering on operating profit enhancement, aligning with management's stated priority.
“Adjusted Operating Profit is expected to grow at a mid-to-high single-digit rate...”
Why it matters: Changes in CFO can affect financial strategy. This can impact overall performance.
Confirms:Q2 2026 results show no negative impact. Financial performance remained strong despite the CFO transition.
Disproves:Q2 2026 results show a decline in financial performance. This is attributed to the CFO transition.
Why it matters: Finishing this will be a big step for Kimberly-Clark's growth plans.
Confirms:An official announcement will confirm that Kenvue has been bought.
Disproves:News of delays or rules stopping the deal from closing.
Why it matters: Updates on the Kenvue deal could affect Kimberly-Clark's growth plans and market position.
Confirms one read:Good news on the Kenvue deal shows synergies or growth potential.
Confirms the other:Bad news about the Kenvue deal raises concerns about costs or integration.
Why it matters: If growth is higher, it shows good profits and smart cost control.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS growth reported above 10% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS growth reported below 5% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A steady gross margin shows good cost control during inflation.
Confirms:Gross margin reported above 36% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Gross margin reported below 35% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Double-digit growth in adjusted EPS shows strong financial health and good cost control.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS from continuing operations grows by 10% or more.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS from continuing operations grows less than 10%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Attached and incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of the press release of Kimberly-Clark Corporation (the "Corporation"), dated April 28, 2026 reporting the Corporation’s results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The information, including exhibits attached hereto, in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Attached and incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of the press release of Kimberly-Clark Corporation (the "Corporation"), dated January 27, 2026 reporting the Corporation’s results of operations for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The information, including exhibits attached hereto, in
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on November 2, 2025, Kimberly-Clark Corporation, a Delaware corporation (NASDAQ: KMB) (“ K-C ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Kenvue Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Kenvue ”), Vesta Sub I, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of K-C (“ First Merger Sub ”), and Vesta Sub II, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of K-C (“ Second Merger Sub…
Other Events. Kimberly-Clark Corporation (the "Corporation") is filing this Current Report on Form 8-K ("Form 8-K") to recast certain financial information and related disclosures included in the Corporation's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, originally filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") on February 13, 2025 ("2024 Form 10-K"). International Family Care and Professional ("IFP") Transaction As previously disclosed, on June 5, 2025,…
“Adjusted Earnings per Share Attributable to Kimberly-Clark are expected to grow at a low-to-mid single digit rate...”
“Adjusted Earnings Per Share are expected to grow at a mid-to-high teens percentage rate...”
“Adjusted Earnings Per Share is now expected to grow at a mid-to-high teens percentage rate...”
“Adjusted Earnings Per share are now expected to be flat to positive on a constant-currency basis...”
“Adjusted earnings per share were $7.30 compared to $6.57 last year, an increase of 11.1 percent...”
“Adjusted Operating Profit to grow at a low-to-mid single digit rate...”
“Adjusted Operating Profit is expected to grow at a mid-to-high teens percentage rate...”
“Adjusted Operating Profit is now expected to grow at a mid-to-high teens percentage rate...”
“Adjusted Operating Profit to be flat to positive on a constant-currency basis...”
“Adjusted operating profit was $3.2 billion versus $3.0 billion in the prior year...”