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WD-40 Company (WDFC)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$226.34+1.49%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly approach. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 127% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Specialty Chemicals
- Market cap
- $3.00B
- Employees
- 714
- IPO date
- 1995-04-14
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $226.34. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$100.14consensus
Range $93.55 – $101.76
vs price: +126% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$122.49consensus
Range $116.74 – $248.56
vs price: +85% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $226 the market pays 38× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 40× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $100 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
38.5x
peer 17.0x · own history 40.5x
Premium
2.3x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
126%
our forecast 5%
Our fair value
$99.98
range $93.55 – $101.76
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premium
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 126% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
70th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.12x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
22nd pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -8.9% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-08-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.82 → $1.66 (-8.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$115.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$268.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,260.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for maintenance product sales growth in the Americas
Why it matters: Sales growth in this segment is crucial for overall revenue. It reflects market demand.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sales of maintenance products in the Americas will grow more than 10% in the next report.
Disproves:Sales of maintenance products in the Americas will drop below 10% in the next report.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WDFC yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like PG, KO, and COST keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting WDFC and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If WDFC raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-09), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If WDFC beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a beat of +6% on the 2026-02-28 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If WDFC cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-09), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like PG, KO, and COST start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping WDFC and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0413d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 4, 2026, WD-40 Company (“Company”) announced that Sara K. Hyzer, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer (“CFO”) and principal accounting officer (“PAO”), has informed the Company of her intention to transition from those roles and is expected to assume the role of Division President, Americas following the appointment of a new CFO. Ms. Hyzer…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.