Reading REYN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track REYN free→Reading REYN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track REYN free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future results. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the company trades above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment hinges on guidance from REYN and the performance of sector bellwethers like PG, KO, and COST. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23 REYN trades at 14× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $26 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 10% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.39 → $0.40 (+3.9% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 3 guided quarters · 7.4% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$86.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$210.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,801.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:The company will pay the $0.23 dividend as planned.
Disproves:The company cuts or suspends the dividend payment.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for REYN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as otherwise expressly stated in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Household Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
REYN Reynolds Consumer Products | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CL Colgate-Palmolive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | full | moderate |
KMB Kimberly-Clark | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CHD Church & Dwight | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | low |
CLX Clorox | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a consistent dividend payout of $0.23 per share.
Focus on strategies to enhance revenue growth over the coming quarters.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show problems in revenue growth. This could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 2026 net revenues fall more than -2% compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:Q2 2026 net revenues stay flat or grow compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: If it goes above this level, it shows good cost management. This helps profit goals. It means the company is running better.
Confirms:Operating income was over $80M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income was under $75M in Q2.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show loss of market share. It also means more competition.
Confirms:Retail volumes in Q2 2026 decline more than -2% year over year.
Disproves:Retail volumes in Q2 2026 remain flat or grow year over year.
Why it matters: Sector growth impacts Reynolds' performance. Slowing growth may hurt sales.
Confirms:Consumer Staples sector revenue growth speeds up above 5%.
Disproves:Consumer Staples sector revenue growth stays below 3%.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority. Strong growth signals improved market position.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings per share below this level would mean lower profits. It may also show operational problems.
Confirms:Q2 2026 EPS drops below $0.39.
Disproves:Q2 2026 EPS meets or exceeds $0.39.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as otherwise expressly stated in such filing.