Reading MAGN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MAGN free→Reading MAGN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MAGN free→NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. However, the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 84% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how they may impact estimates and stock performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.65. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $13 MAGN trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $84 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 85% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.68x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.12 (-29.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$199.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$566.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,202.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects consumer spending and overall economic health. This can impact Magnera's sales.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is reported above 2% for Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is reported below 1% for Q1 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MAGN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, the Company reported its results of operations for the quarter ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the press release issued by the Company is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Household Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MAGN Magnera Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CL Colgate-Palmolive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | full | moderate |
KMB Kimberly-Clark | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CHD Church & Dwight | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | low |
CLX Clorox | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Magnera aims to meet its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow guidance despite global uncertainty.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $792M in 2026-Q1 to $796M in 2026-Q2, indicating progress towards the full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow guidance. However, net income remains negative, suggesting limited progress in profitability.
“Magnera delivered a solid second quarter in line with our expectations...”
“Reaffirmed adjusted EBITDA of $380 - $410 million.”
Magnera targets a ~9% improvement in reported earnings for 2026 through cost improvement and capacity optimization.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Net income improved from -$34M in 2026-Q1 to -$18M in 2026-Q2, showing some progress towards the ~9% earnings improvement target. However, earnings remain negative, indicating challenges in achieving the full target.
Magnera aims to maintain its free cash flow guidance of $90-$110 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities increased from $2M in 2026-Q1 to $87M in 2026-Q2, supporting the free cash flow guidance of $90-$110M for 2026. This indicates progress towards maintaining the guidance, though the full-year target remains to be achieved.
Why it matters: Retail sales data impacts consumer spending. It can signal demand trends for Magnera's products.
Confirms one read:Retail sales growth exceeds 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: This report will show if the company can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows smaller losses. It may also show a return to making money.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows continued losses or a wider loss than expected.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, the Company reported its results of operations for the quarter ended December 27, 2025. A copy of the press release issued by the Company is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 29, 2026, Erin Maile was appointed by the Board of Directors of Magnera Corporation (the “Company”) as Executive Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer, effective February 2, 2026. In this capacity, Ms. Maile will serve as the Company’s principal accounting officer. Ms. Maile, 34, previously served as the Company’s Vice President, Fina…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 19, 2025, the Company reported its results of operations for the year ended September 27, 2025. A copy of the press release issued by the Company is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On October 2, 2025, Magnera Corporation (the “Company”) announced the departure of certain officers, as discussed below in this Current Report on Form 8-K. Effective December 31, 2025, Eileen L. Beck, Executive Vice President, Human Resources and Administration, will depart as an officer of Magnera and intends to retire. As of September 27, 2025 an…
“We are targeting to improve reported earnings by ~9%...”
“Free cash flow of $90 - $110 million.”
“Free cash flow of $90 - $110 million; cash flow from operation of $170 - $190 million.”