Reading NUS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NUS free→Reading NUS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NUS free→NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that the company's profits are not strongly backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could pose challenges. Peer multiples imply a price about 76% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers in the Consumer Staples sector perform. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.04 NUS trades at 4× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $21 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 76% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.39x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.23 → $0.20 (-13.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$121.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$471.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,982.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales trends show consumer demand. This affects Nu Skin's sales.
Confirms one read:June retail sales increase above 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:June retail sales decrease below -0.5% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Q2 2026 revenue guidance
Q2 revenue guidance aligns with management's growth objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) On May 28, 2026, at the Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. (the “Company”) 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”), the Company’s stockholders approved and adopted the Company’s Amended and Restated 2024 Omnibus Incentive Plan (the “Amended and Restated Plan” or the “Plan”), which previously had been approved by the Company’s Board of…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Household Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NUS Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
CL Colgate-Palmolive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | full | moderate |
KMB Kimberly-Clark | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CHD Church & Dwight | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | low |
CLX Clorox | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -6.7% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has set a revenue guidance range of $1.35 to $1.50 billion for 2026.
Management has set an EPS guidance range of $0.70 to $1.10 for 2026.
Management projects Q2 2026 revenue between $330 million and $360 million.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth shows a good change in the maturing sector.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 4% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains below 4% year over year.
Prysm iO device placement signals significant growth potential.
Launch of Prysm iO and India expansion supports long-term growth.
and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 6, 2026, Steven K. Hatchett notified the Company that, due to family health circumstances, he determined to resign from his position as Executive Vice President and Chief Product Officer, effective as of May 8, 2026. Mr. Hatchett has agreed to remain with the Company as a strategic product advisor with an annual salary of $147,478. The Compa…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b), (c), (e) On March 17, 2026, James D. Thomas notified Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. (the “Company”) of his resignation from his position as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective on the same date, to pursue an outside opportunity. On March 18, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors appointed Chelsea K. Lantz, the Company’s…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 27, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into that certain Second Amendment and Restatement Agreement in connection with the Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) by and among the Company, as Borrower, the Lenders from time to time party thereto and Bank of America, N.A., as Administrative Agent, which amends and restates the Company’s existing amended and restated cred…