Reading CHD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHD free→Reading CHD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHD free→NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is low, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from CHD and trends among sector bellwethers like PG, UL, and CL. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $98.40. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $98 the market pays 28× p/e — above the 18× p/e peer median but in line with its own 30× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $72 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $100–$114. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 36% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.86x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.89 → $0.89 (+0.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 9 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 48% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.1% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 13.4% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$90.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$210.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,719.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Organic sales growth is key to Church & Dwight's performance. A drop below 3% signals trouble.
Confirms:Q2 organic sales growth is below 3%.
Disproves:Q2 organic sales growth reported at 3% or higher.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CHD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 1, 2026, Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, and providing additional information. This press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 pursuant to this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$100.00 – $114.00 (median $110.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-29
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Household Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CHD Church & Dwight | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | low |
CL Colgate-Palmolive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | full | moderate |
KMB Kimberly-Clark | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CLX Clorox | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | moderate |
REYN Reynolds Consumer Products | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Aim for a full-year reported EPS increase of approximately 18% to 22%.
Maintain cash flow from operations at approximately $1.15 billion for the year.
Continue to expect capital expenditures for the full year to be approximately $130 million.
Why it matters: The success of new products like HERO cleansers is vital for organic growth. Strong sales would boost confidence.
Confirms:Sales of HERO facial cleansers are better than expected in Q3.
Disproves:Sales of HERO facial cleansers fall short of expectations in Q3.
Why it matters: Adjusted EPS growth shows profit. A drop below 5% may mean weaker performance.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS growth reported below 5%.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS growth reported at or above 5%.
Why it matters: Cash flow is crucial for funding growth and acquisitions. Falling below $1.15 billion raises concerns.
Confirms:Cash from operations is below $1.15 billion.
Disproves:Cash from operations reported at or above $1.15 billion.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 30, 2026, Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, and providing additional information. This press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 pursuant to this
Other Events. As previously announced, the Company has conducted a strategic review of its vitamin, minerals and supplement (VMS) business. On December 9, 2025, the Company announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its VitaFusion® and L’il Critters® brands, including related trademarks, licenses, and manufacturing and distribution facilities in Vancouver and Ridgefield, Washington. The transaction is expected to close before year-end, subject to customary closing condi…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 31, 2025, Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, and providing additional information. This press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 pursuant to this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 1, 2025, Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, and providing additional information. This press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 pursuant to this