Church & Dwight (CHD)

NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$104.53+1.41%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Church & Dwight’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.05 → 4.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase EPS by 18% to 22% in FY26	A primary condition in Church & Dwight's published investment case. The stated target is 18% to 22% EPS growth.	Improving	EPS growth falls below 10% in FY26	Diluted EPS growth: 8.97% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 18% to 22% EPS growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20268.974359 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f894e4ed-a151-4ded-a9f0-f6b2ac0fac49. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow of about $1.15 billion in 2026	Free cash flow is strong at about $1.15 billion guided for 2026.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $1 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $256.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.15 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026256,900,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 3% annually	A supporting condition in Church & Dwight's published investment case. The stated target is >= 3% YoY.	Broken	Revenue growth falls below 1% YoY next year	Revenue growth: 1.57% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 3% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20261.573392 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f894e4ed-a151-4ded-a9f0-f6b2ac0fac49. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain valuation premium with P/E near 28	A supporting condition in Church & Dwight's published investment case. The stated target is P/E >= 25.	Intact	P/E falls below 22	P/E (TTM): 29.37x As of 2026-10-15; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 15, 202629.3675 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 15, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: CHD:2026-10-15. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.05

$4.05 → $4.05 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.50B

$6.46B → $6.50B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.05	$6,459,854,920	12 / 10
2026-07-25	$4.05	$6,459,854,920	12 / 10
2026-07-26	$4.05	$6,459,854,920	12 / 10
2026-07-27	$4.05	$6,459,854,920	12 / 10
2026-07-28	$4.05	$6,459,854,920	12 / 10
2026-07-29	$4.04	$6,459,854,920	13 / 10
2026-07-30	$4.04	$6,459,854,920	13 / 10
2026-07-31	$4.04	$6,459,854,920	13 / 10
2026-08-01	$4.05	$6,457,222,650	13 / 11
2026-08-02	$4.04	$6,481,911,490	13 / 12
2026-08-03	$4.05	$6,476,946,093	10 / 10
2026-08-04	$4.05	$6,476,946,093	10 / 10
2026-08-05	$4.05	$6,476,946,093	10 / 10
2026-08-06	$4.04	$6,502,661,860	17 / 16
2026-08-07	$4.05	$6,476,946,093	10 / 10
2026-08-08	$4.04	$6,502,649,360	16 / 16
2026-08-09	$4.04	$6,502,649,360	16 / 16
2026-08-10	$4.04	$6,502,649,360	16 / 16
2026-08-11	$4.05	$6,476,946,093	10 / 10
2026-08-12	$4.04	$6,507,432,650	16 / 15
2026-08-13	$4.05	$6,476,946,093	10 / 10
2026-08-14	$4.05	$6,476,946,093	10 / 10
2026-08-15	$4.05	$6,476,946,093	11 / 11
2026-08-16	$4.05	$6,476,946,093	11 / 11
2026-08-17	$4.05	$6,476,946,093	11 / 11
2026-08-18	$4.05	$6,476,946,093	11 / 11
2026-08-19	$4.05	$6,476,946,093	11 / 11
2026-08-20	$4.05	$6,492,339,385	10 / 12
2026-08-21	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	10 / 12
2026-08-22	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	10 / 12
2026-08-23	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	10 / 12
2026-08-24	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	10 / 12
2026-08-25	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-08-26	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-08-27	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-08-28	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-08-29	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-08-30	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-08-31	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-01	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-02	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-03	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-04	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-05	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-06	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-07	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-08	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-09	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-10	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-11	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-12	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-13	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-14	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-15	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-16	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-17	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-18	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-19	$4.05	$6,497,472,677	11 / 13
2026-09-20	$4.04	$6,496,391,427	11 / 13
2026-09-21	$4.04	$6,496,391,427	11 / 13
2026-09-22	$4.04	$6,496,391,427	11 / 13
2026-09-23	$4.04	$6,496,391,427	11 / 13
2026-09-24	$4.04	$6,496,391,427	11 / 13
2026-09-25	$4.04	$6,496,391,427	11 / 13
2026-09-26	$4.04	$6,496,391,427	11 / 13
2026-09-27	$4.04	$6,496,391,427	11 / 13
2026-09-28	$4.04	$6,496,391,427	11 / 13
2026-09-29	$4.04	$6,496,391,427	11 / 13
2026-09-30	$4.04	$6,496,391,427	11 / 13
2026-10-01	$4.04	$6,496,391,427	11 / 13
2026-10-02	$4.04	$6,496,391,427	11 / 13
2026-10-03	$4.04	$6,496,391,427	11 / 13
2026-10-04	$4.04	$6,496,391,427	11 / 13
2026-10-05	$4.04	$6,496,391,427	11 / 13
2026-10-06	$4.04	$6,496,391,427	11 / 13
2026-10-07	$4.04	$6,498,586,677	11 / 13
2026-10-08	$4.04	$6,498,586,677	11 / 13
2026-10-09	$4.04	$6,498,586,677	11 / 13
2026-10-10	$4.04	$6,498,586,677	11 / 13
2026-10-11	$4.04	$6,498,586,677	11 / 13
2026-10-12	$4.04	$6,498,586,677	11 / 13
2026-10-13	$4.04	$6,498,586,677	11 / 13
2026-10-14	$4.05	$6,498,585,358	11 / 13
2026-10-15	$4.05	$6,498,585,358	11 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	9	3
2026-06-01	10	9	2
2026-07-01	10	9	2
2026-08-01	10	9	2
2026-09-01	10	9	2
2026-10-01	10	9	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 15 · prior Aug 3

$107.00 → $106.00-0.9%

$0$58.85$117.70

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase EPS by 18% to 22% in FY26Diluted EPS growth: 8.97%
Free cash flow of about $1.15 billion in 2026Free cash flow: $256.9M
Sustain revenue growth near 3% annuallyPublished status: Broken
Maintain valuation premium with P/E near 28P/E (TTM): 29.37x

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Church & Dwight outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, reflecting recent strong financial performance and a commitment to growth.

What's priced into Church & Dwight

The market appears to price CHD at a premium compared to its peers, indicating high expectations for continued performance. The valuation is considered stretched, suggesting that investors are anticipating strong results.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has set ambitious targets for earnings per share (EPS) growth and cash generation, which they are currently on track to achieve. However, there is mixed performance in cash flow and capital expenditures, indicating some uncertainty.

What Church & Dwight hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet their growth targets and the impact of broader economic factors, such as inflation and employment trends. A reversal in guidance or continued weakness in the job market could negatively affect sentiment.