Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Honest Co., Inc. (The) (HNST)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-23
$4.80-1.23%
Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-23
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.11 → 0.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|---|---|
| FY 2026 · Q4 | ||
| Revenue | — | 80.27M |
| EPS | — | 0.007 |
| FY 2026 · Annual | ||
| Revenue | $319M–$325M | 322.57M |
| EPS | — | 0.118 |
| EBITDA | $23M–$25Mnon-GAAP | — |
| Organic revenue growth | ||
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA of $20M to $23M in 2026 | The company plans adjusted EBITDA of $20 to $23 million. | Improving | adjusted EBITDA falls below $20 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HNST is a smaller consumer-staples growth business, with a thesis centered on expanding higher-margin product platforms and better operating efficiency. The long-term thesis is improving, but its state is watch: recent performance remains below its industry cohort, and confidence has eased from high to medium.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 4.52 premium measure and an expectations gap of 0.18; model confidence is low. The valuation is tagged as stretched, though no fragility gates fired, so the evidence does not point to a concentrated fragility concern.
Near term, raised 2026 guidance and 6.7% organic revenue growth support the operating picture, led by wipes and personal care while diaper revenue declined. Gross margin expanded, helped by tariff refunds and product mix, and operating expenses fell, but improving efficiency remains a management priority marked behind. Near-term miss risk is described as quiet, though the company’s smaller size and recent peer misses warrant attention.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued growth in higher-margin platforms and sustained progress on margins and efficiency. A guidance reversal after the recent increase would damage management credibility, while weakening employment could pressure consumer-staples names. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HNST’s improving growth and raised outlook are constructive, but elevated risk, uneven recent performance, and stretched valuation keep the thesis conditional. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| — |
| FY 2027 · Annual | ||
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 335.96M |
| EPS | — | 0.112 |
| A primary condition in Honest Co., Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 4% and <= 6% YoY. |
| Broken |
| organic revenue growth falls below 4% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full year 2026 revenue near $306M to $312M | A primary condition in Honest Co., Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $306 million and <= $312 million. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $306 million in FY26 | Revenue: $83.303M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $306 million and <= $312 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202683,303,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 304b8798-9c42-4362-ab8a-b4f7b3384997. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.09 → $0.11 · observed estimates
$0.33B → $0.34B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.09 | $326,459,087 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.09 | $326,459,087 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.09 | $326,459,087 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.09 | $326,459,087 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.14 | $335,868,010 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.13 | $335,933,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.