Honest Co., Inc. (The) (HNST)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$5.44-5.23%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Organic revenue growth of 4-6% in 2026: FY26 revenue guidance $319M-$325M vs FY25 $367M-$378M (approx -13% to -15% YoY) vs 4% target.
Honest Co. aims to grow revenue to about $310 million in 2026. It targets 4-6% organic revenue growth. The company plans adjusted EBITDA of $20 to $23 million. Recent earnings beats show some progress.
Revenue has fallen from $97 million to $78 million in one year. The company is still loss-making with negative operating income. Legal issues and new debts may hurt results.
The price is about 18% above our fair value near $3. Analysts expect about 5% revenue decline. Our fair value is below the Street median of $4.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls below $20 million in FY26
Breaks if: organic revenue growth falls below 4% in FY26
Breaks if: annual revenue falls below $306 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on organic revenue growth in high-margin platforms. The current thesis state is cautious, given the elevated risk and expensive valuation compared to peers.
The market appears to price in a significant expectations gap, suggesting that investors anticipate strong performance. However, the valuation is considered expensive, indicating that the current price may not fully reflect the potential challenges ahead.
Management is on track with their priorities, having raised the full-year financial outlook and shown progress in organic revenue growth. However, operational efficiency improvements are lagging, which could impact future profitability.
Key factors include the potential for inflation to reaccelerate, which could benefit HNST, and the performance of sector leaders like PG, UL, and CL. Additionally, any negative guidance or earnings misses could significantly impact credibility and stock performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the read. The company raised its full year 2026 financial outlook. However, revenue fell, which threatens growth goals. Insider stock sales also raise concerns about confidence.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, the multi-year view on HNST is cautious, with a focus on management execution and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.