Colgate-Palmolive (CL)

NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$94.11+1.55%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Colgate-Palmolive’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.11 → 4.09 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful implementation of Strategic Growth and Productivity Program	The company executes a productivity program to support growth.	Improving	Program progress stalls or reverses over next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management expanded the Strategic Growth and Productivity Program in 2026-Q1, increasing estimated cumulative pretax charges to $350M-$550M and projecting annual savings of $200M-$300M. The program continues to be a key focus supporting the 2030 strategy, with ongoing execution and investment. The trajectory is delivering as management has increased scope and detailed expected savings. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain profit margins near current levels	Profit margins remain stable despite some pressure.	Under Pressure	Gross margin falls significantly below mid-cycle levels	Gross margin: 61.48% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain profit margins near current levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Jul 31, 202661.481067 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c3b20c8e-4dc3-4768-9fc2-cb12b3e4b45c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of at least 2% annually	A primary condition in Colgate-Palmolive's published investment case. The stated target is >=2% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 2% in FY26	Revenue growth: 4.91% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20264.911937 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c3b20c8e-4dc3-4768-9fc2-cb12b3e4b45c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue grew from $4.911B in 2026-Q1 to $5.361B in 2026-Q2, a 4.9% increase, consistent with the 2%-6% net sales growth guidance. Organic sales growth was 2.9% in 2026-Q1 and 2.4% in 2026-Q2, within the 1%-4% target. Management has maintained this growth target consistently, and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.09

$4.05 → $4.09 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$22.09B

$22.12B → $22.09B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.05	$22,115,850,140	20 / 18
2026-07-25	$4.05	$22,115,850,140	20 / 18
2026-07-26	$4.05	$22,115,850,140	20 / 18
2026-07-27	$4.05	$22,115,850,140	20 / 18
2026-07-28	$4.05	$22,115,850,140	20 / 18
2026-07-29	$4.04	$22,162,006,994	12 / 15
2026-07-30	$4.04	$22,162,006,994	12 / 15
2026-07-31	$4.05	$22,115,850,140	20 / 18
2026-08-01	$4.05	$22,115,850,140	20 / 18
2026-08-02	$4.06	$22,145,558,236	12 / 15
2026-08-03	$4.07	$22,082,624,860	20 / 18
2026-08-04	$4.07	$22,109,103,576	12 / 15
2026-08-05	$4.07	$22,109,103,576	12 / 15
2026-08-06	$4.10	$22,059,555,180	20 / 18
2026-08-07	$4.07	$22,109,103,576	12 / 15
2026-08-08	$4.10	$22,059,555,180	20 / 18
2026-08-09	$4.10	$22,059,555,180	20 / 18
2026-08-10	$4.07	$22,109,103,576	12 / 15
2026-08-11	$4.07	$22,109,103,576	12 / 15
2026-08-12	$4.07	$22,109,103,576	12 / 15
2026-08-13	$4.07	$22,109,103,576	12 / 15
2026-08-14	$4.07	$22,109,103,576	12 / 15
2026-08-15	$4.07	$22,109,103,576	12 / 15
2026-08-16	$4.07	$22,109,103,576	12 / 15
2026-08-17	$4.07	$22,109,103,576	12 / 15
2026-08-18	$4.07	$22,109,103,576	12 / 15
2026-08-19	$4.07	$22,109,103,576	12 / 15
2026-08-20	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-08-21	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-08-22	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-08-23	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-08-24	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-08-25	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-08-26	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-08-27	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-08-28	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-08-29	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-08-30	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-08-31	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-09-01	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-09-02	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-09-03	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-09-04	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-09-05	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-09-06	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-09-07	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-09-08	$4.11	$22,098,867,588	12 / 15
2026-09-09	$4.11	$22,098,861,706	12 / 15
2026-09-10	$4.11	$22,098,861,706	12 / 15
2026-09-11	$4.11	$22,098,861,706	12 / 15
2026-09-12	$4.11	$22,098,861,706	12 / 15
2026-09-13	$4.11	$22,098,844,600	12 / 15
2026-09-14	$4.11	$22,098,844,600	12 / 15
2026-09-15	$4.11	$22,098,844,600	12 / 15
2026-09-16	$4.11	$22,098,861,706	12 / 15
2026-09-17	$4.11	$22,098,861,706	12 / 15
2026-09-18	$4.11	$22,098,861,706	12 / 15
2026-09-19	$4.11	$22,098,861,706	12 / 15
2026-09-20	$4.11	$22,098,861,706	12 / 15
2026-09-21	$4.11	$22,098,861,706	12 / 15
2026-09-22	$4.10	$22,096,408,764	12 / 15
2026-09-23	$4.10	$22,096,408,764	12 / 15
2026-09-24	$4.10	$22,096,408,764	12 / 15
2026-09-25	$4.10	$22,096,408,764	12 / 15
2026-09-26	$4.10	$22,096,408,764	12 / 15
2026-09-27	$4.10	$22,096,408,764	12 / 15
2026-09-28	$4.10	$22,096,408,764	12 / 15
2026-09-29	$4.10	$22,088,167,588	12 / 15
2026-09-30	$4.10	$22,088,167,588	12 / 15
2026-10-01	$4.10	$22,088,167,588	12 / 15
2026-10-02	$4.10	$22,088,167,588	12 / 15
2026-10-03	$4.10	$22,088,167,588	12 / 15
2026-10-04	$4.10	$22,088,167,588	12 / 15
2026-10-05	$4.10	$22,088,167,588	12 / 15
2026-10-06	$4.10	$22,089,094,000	12 / 15
2026-10-07	$4.09	$22,088,564,588	12 / 15
2026-10-08	$4.09	$22,088,564,588	12 / 15
2026-10-09	$4.09	$22,088,564,588	12 / 15
2026-10-10	$4.09	$22,088,564,588	12 / 15
2026-10-11	$4.09	$22,088,564,588	12 / 15
2026-10-12	$4.09	$22,088,564,588	12 / 15
2026-10-13	$4.09	$22,088,564,588	12 / 15
2026-10-14	$4.09	$22,088,564,588	12 / 15
2026-10-15	$4.09	$22,088,564,588	12 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	7	0
2026-06-01	13	8	0
2026-07-01	13	8	1
2026-08-01	13	8	1
2026-09-01	13	8	0
2026-10-01	13	8	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 15 · prior Aug 3

$109.00 → $106.00-2.8%

Piper SandlerSep 21 · prior Apr 8

$92.00 → $95.00+3.3%

$0$59.95$119.90

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Successful implementation of Strategic Growth and Productivity ProgramDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain profit margins near current levelsPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth of at least 2% annuallyRevenue growth: 4.91%

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Colgate-Palmolive outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue growth and strategic initiatives. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance and management's commitment to growth.

What's priced into Colgate-Palmolive

The market appears to price in a low level of fragility, reflecting weak execution quality but not an overly expensive valuation. Expectations are slightly above neutral, indicating that the market anticipates stable performance relative to peers.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to continue on a positive trajectory, with management achieving revenue growth within their stated targets. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, particularly given recent industry trends.

What Colgate-Palmolive hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute their strategic growth initiatives and the broader economic environment, particularly inflation and job market conditions. Any reversal in guidance or significant economic downturn could negatively impact investor confidence.