Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. (SPB)

Q: What's priced into Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. (SPB) stock?

The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to SPB being cheap versus peers, while another shows a 61% premium to peers. The priced-in assessment calls this valuation justified, with low fragility and an expectations gap of -0.2, but the model’s confidence in that valuation view is high.

Q: What does the Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. (SPB) outlook hinge on?

The next call matters: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued delivery against management’s revenue and cash-flow goals would support the thesis. A weakening jobs report could increase recession concerns for cyclical businesses, while stronger results and guidance from sector peers such as PG, UL, and CL could support sector momentum.

NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$79.86-1.44%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-28
Revenue	—	680.26M
EPS	—	0.74
Annual ending 2027-09-30
Revenue	—	2.9B
EPS	—	5.581
Annual ending 2028-09-30
Revenue	—	2.93B
EPS	—	6.185

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Approximately 50% conversion of Adjusted EBITDA to Free Cash Flow	Profit margins and cash flow conversion remain solid near 50%.	Intact	Conversion ratio falls below 40% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted free cash flow is expected to be approximately 50% of adjusted EBITDA, consistent with management's guidance. Operating cash flow was $83.3M in 2026-Q3 with adjusted EBITDA of $158.3M, reflecting delivery near the 50% conversion target. The trajectory is delivering as management maintains this framework. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Strategic $127 million investment in Home and Personal Care business	The strategic $127 million Oaktree investment boosts the Home and Personal Care segment.	Intact	Investment fails to close or deliver growth by end of 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. The strategic partnership with Oaktree Capital involved a $127 million cash investment in the Home and Personal Care business. This partnership is a key step in management's strategy to separate HPC and accelerate growth. The transaction closed after 2026-Q2, so delivery is in early stages but progressing as planned. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Flat to low single-digit revenue growth	Spectrum Brands grows revenue flat to low single digits as guided.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26	Revenue growth: 7.68% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0% and <=4% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20267.675815 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e4e33050-ad23-497b-8f1d-2e0de416f4f1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $677M in 2026-Q1 to $753.3M in 2026-Q3, a 7.7% increase year-over-year in Q3. Management has consistently maintained the flat to low single-digit growth target for fiscal 2026, and the trajectory is delivering with revenue growth above the low end of the range. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	3
2026-06-01	5	3
2026-07-01	5	3
2026-08-01	5	4
2026-09-01	5	4
2026-10-01	5	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Approximately 50% conversion of Adjusted EBITDA to Free Cash FlowDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Strategic $127 million investment in Home and Personal Care businessDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Flat to low single-digit revenue growthRevenue growth: 7.68%

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SPB is a consumer staples business with a mixed, execution-led multi-year view rather than a clear durable compounder. The thesis is intact, with recent performance in the top half of its industry, but company quality has weakened while momentum has improved.

What's priced into Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc.

The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to SPB being cheap versus peers, while another shows a 61% premium to peers. The priced-in assessment calls this valuation justified, with low fragility and an expectations gap of -0.2, but the model’s confidence in that valuation view is high.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management is on track for flat to low single-digit fiscal 2026 revenue growth, with Q3 revenue up 7.7% year over year. Cash conversion is mixed, and the Home and Personal Care partnership with Oaktree is still in its early stages. Earnings quality remains fragile, and erratic recent surprises make the next guidance update a key risk despite a low stated miss risk.

What Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The next call matters: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued delivery against management’s revenue and cash-flow goals would support the thesis. A weakening jobs report could increase recession concerns for cyclical businesses, while stronger results and guidance from sector peers such as PG, UL, and CL could support sector momentum.

Bottom line

Over the next one to three years, SPB’s case rests on translating better revenue momentum and the new partnership into steadier execution, while managing fragile earnings quality and a valuation picture that is mixed versus peers. The long-term thesis is intact, but not yet firmly proven. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.