Reading SBH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SBH free→Reading SBH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SBH free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 57% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment hinges on whether SBH can raise guidance next quarter and if sector bellwethers continue to show improving trends. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.63. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 SBH trades at 7× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $32 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 57% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.94x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.58 → $0.53 (-7.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$221.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$439.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,047.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Sally Beauty's future. It shows if the company is on track.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 2% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SBH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 11, 2026, Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued the news release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 reporting the financial results of the Company for the second quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Earnings Release”).
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Discretionary (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SBH Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | full | moderate |
SN SharkNinja | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
H Hyatt | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to focus on sustaining the company's revenue growth over the fiscal year.
Focus on reaching the free cash flow target of approximately $200 million for FY26.
Aim to increase adjusted diluted EPS to the range of $2.02 to $2.10 for FY26.
Why it matters: This range is critical to see if Sally Beauty can maintain its growth. Meeting this target shows strong demand despite market challenges.
Confirms:Q3 net sales were $942 million or more.
Disproves:Q3 net sales were less than $932 million.
Why it matters: This EPS range matters for profit checks. Meeting this target shows good cost control and growth.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS was $0.56 or more.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS was less than $0.52.
Why it matters: EPS guidance affects investor confidence. It shows how well the company expects to perform.
Confirms one read:EPS guidance raised to $2.10 or higher.
Confirms the other:EPS guidance lowered to below $2.02.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong cash flow. It helps support growth plans and returns to shareholders.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported at or above $200 million.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported below $180 million.
Why it matters: This metric shows if customer demand is steady. It helps see how well the company adapts.
Confirms one read:Comparable sales growth was over 1%.
Confirms the other:Comparable sales growth was below flat.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 30, 2026, Marlo Cormier and Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) discussed Ms. Cormier’s resignation from her position as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Company. Ms. Cormier and the Company mutually agreed that she will remain with the Company through April 11, 2026, and thereafter will leave to pursue othe…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Director On March 12, 2026, Erin Nealy Cox notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) of her resignation from the Board as part of a transition to her new role at Walmart, Inc. The resignation was effective immediately and there was no disagreement between the Company and Ms. Nealy Co…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 9, 2026, Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued the news release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 reporting the financial results of the Company for the first quarter ended December 31, 2025 (the “Earnings Release”).