Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$17.40-1.25%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	947.3M
EPS	—	0.528
Annual ending 2027-09-30
Revenue	—	3.78B
EPS	—	2.234
Annual ending 2028-09-30
Revenue	—	3.85B
EPS	—	2.41

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Generate free cash flow at least $200M next quarter	Free cash flow is strong at $200 million next quarter.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $180 million next quarter	Free cash flow: $61.631M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$200 million free cash flow. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 3, 202661,631,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain operating margin near 8.65%	Profit margins stay near 8.6%.	Intact	operating margin falls below 7.5% next year	Operating margin: 9.24% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~8.65% operating margin. The stored target says 2025-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 3, 20269.235374 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fa248f09-734e-4ea7-8795-e4bf3e901d59. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain revenue growth trajectory near 2%	A primary condition in Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=2% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 1% next year	Revenue growth: 0.23% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 20260.233899 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fa248f09-734e-4ea7-8795-e4bf3e901d59. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain valuation discount to peers with PE below 10	A supporting condition in Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE below 10.	Intact	PE rises above 15 without growth improvement	P/E (TTM): 8.61x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 20268.6139 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: SBH:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	1	1
2026-06-01	3	1	1
2026-07-01	3	1	1
2026-08-01	3	1	1
2026-09-01	3	1	1
2026-10-01	3	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Generate free cash flow at least $200M next quarterFree cash flow: $61.631M
Sustain operating margin near 8.65%Operating margin: 9.24%
Maintain revenue growth trajectory near 2%Published status: Broken
Maintain valuation discount to peers with PE below 10P/E (TTM): 8.61x

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SBH is a value-oriented business with a profitable-growth thesis, rather than a high-growth story. The multi-year view is intact, supported by recent earnings progress, though recent financial performance and earnings quality are rated neutral.

What's priced into Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.

The evidence describes SBH as cheap versus peers, and its valuation score has recently fallen. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified with low fragility, but the expectations gap is negative, so the valuation evidence does not point to a large cushion against weaker results.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management is on track with its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS goal, and adjusted EPS rose from the first to the third quarter. Third-quarter sales were nearly flat year over year, while free cash flow has been consistent but remains a mixed assessment against the annual goal. Guidance cuts are a key risk, and the company’s history of a deep miss and smaller size warrant attention despite a low current miss-risk assessment.

What Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management maintaining its earnings progress and delivering the annual free cash flow goal. Consumer Discretionary sector conditions are another swing factor: continued strength among major bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker results or guidance could remove that support. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative signal.

Bottom line

For the 1 to 3 year view, SBH combines cheap peer-relative valuation with evidence of earnings execution, but the case remains sensitive to guidance, modest sales growth, and cash flow delivery. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.