Reading RITM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RITM free→Reading RITM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RITM free→NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, but compared with sector peers, RITM is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.34. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.20 RITM trades at 4× p/e, below its 10× p/e peer median. Our $14 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $12–$14. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 33% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted -4.42x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.52 → $0.51 (-1.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 5 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 41.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$99.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$232.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,733.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If Rithm completes this, it will show it can manage debt and fund operations.
Confirms:The offering ends on May 14, 2026. The money will be used for corporate needs.
Disproves:The offering does not close as planned. This shows there may be financing issues.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RITM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 21, 2026, at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”) of Rithm Capital Corp. (the “Company”), the Company’s stockholders approved the First Amendment (the “First Amendment”) to the Rithm Capital Corp. 2023 Omnibus Incentive Plan (the “2023 Plan”) to increase the number of shares of common stock, par value $0.01, of the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$12.50 – $14.50 (median $12.50) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-01
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | full | moderate |
BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 15 of 100 | full | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to maintain the dividend per share at $0.25 as a capital allocation priority.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic investments and acquisitions.
Focus on enhancing operating income through improved operational efficiency.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends will indicate if Rithm can sustain its growth strategy.
Confirms:Revenue growth remains above 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth drops below 10% year over year, indicating a slowdown.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend shows financial health and commitment to shareholders. A cut could signal trouble.
Confirms:The company confirms the dividend remains at $0.25 per share in the next earnings report.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend per share to below $0.25.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company is stable. It also shows care for shareholders.
Confirms:Rithm announces the dividend remains at $0.25 per share for the next quarter.
Disproves:Rithm cuts the dividend below $0.25 per share, signaling financial strain.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost management and profit. Declines could be a warning.
Confirms:Operating income goes up year over year in Q2 results.
Disproves:Operating income goes down year over year in Q2 results.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income backs the management's plan. It also boosts investor trust.
Confirms:Operating income growth is more than the last quarter's rise of 65%.
Disproves:Operating income growth falls below the previous quarter's increase of 65%.
Why it matters: A successful buyback can boost stock price and show confidence in the company's value. Failure to lift price may signal weakness.
Confirms:Stock price goes up a lot after the buyback program is announced.
Disproves:Stock price remains flat or declines despite the buyback announcement.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 14, 2026, Rithm Capital Corp. (the “Company”) closed its previously announced private offering of $500 million aggregate principal amount of 8.500% senior unsecured notes due 2031 (the “2031 Senior Notes”). The 2031 Senior Notes were issued pursuant to an indenture, dated as of May 14, 2026 (the “Indenture”), between the Company and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association, as trustee. The Company is filing the Indenture and the form of…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information included in
Other Events. On May 12, 2026, Rithm Capital Corp. (“Rithm” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the pricing of a private offering of $500 million aggregate principal amount of 8.500% senior unsecured notes due 2031 (the “2031 Senior Notes,” and such offering, the “Senior Notes Offering”). The Senior Notes Offering is expected to close on May 14, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions. A copy of the Company’s press release with respect to the Senior Notes Offering is fil…
Other Events. On May 11, 2026, Rithm Capital Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its intention to commence a private offering of $500 million aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes due 2031 (the “2031 Senior Notes,” and such offering, the “Senior Notes Offering”). A copy of the Company’s press release with respect to the Senior Notes Offering is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company inte…