Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-10-29
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put BXMT beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Mortgage REITs is in recovery. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Cash from operating activities at or above $169.7 million: Cash from operations: $-169.73M.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 27% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens weak on earnings delivery, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look high — what the market is pricing in runs ahead of what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 50% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskBXMT rests on strong recent financial performance, though the company remains unprofitable. Revenue growth is unavailable, and the latest recorded quarter showed non-GAAP earnings of 0.38. BXMT trades at 0.9× P/S versus a 1.6× peer median and 1.4× its historical multiple. The market is pricing in more growth than our forecast. Operating cash flow was negative $169.73 million, against a thesis pillar requiring at least $169.7 million. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 51%. Peer multiples imply a price about 3% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. BXMT is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 9 analysts currently covering BXMT (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
Continue this research
Compare BXMT with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Compare now without an account. Saving and monitoring require an account.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BXMT Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Mortgage REITs — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put BXMT next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.