Reading BXMT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BXMT free→
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$18.36+1.30%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact BXMT's outlook. Earnings quality is robust, while management's recent track record is neutral, indicating stability. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is full. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so the read leans on sales- and cash-based methods. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Reit - Mortgage
- Market cap
- $3.10B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1999-03-31
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.36. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$18.36consensus
Range $13.05 – $19.74
vs price: 0% at
Method agreement — · 3 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$14.62consensus
Range $14.62 – $14.62
vs price: +26% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $18 BXMT trades at 2× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $18 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
1.6x
peer 1.9x · own history 2.0x
Premium
0.8x peer
0.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
1%
our forecast 14%
Our fair value
$18.00
range $12.10 – $19.74
WhyEarnings too small for P/E
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 1% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
19th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 3.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
89th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +3.3% / 30d, n=7for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.36 → $0.37 (+3.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 7 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.1% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -35.1% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$198.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,202.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation changed, moving to a label of "full." Risk fell, indicating a decrease in overall risk. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the environment. Recent financial performance is weak, which may impact future assessments.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for impact of FOMC decisions on June 17, 2026
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates. This affects BXMT's borrowing costs and profits. Investors will pay attention.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates, leading to improved margins for BXMT.
Confirms the other:FOMC cuts rates, leading to tighter margins for BXMT.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BXMT yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Downside triggers
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-1929d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Indenture and 6.250% Senior Secured Notes due 2031 On May 19, 2026, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) completed its previously announced offering of $450,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 6.250% Senior Secured Notes due 2031 (the “Notes”) under an indenture, dated as of May 19, 2026 (the “Indenture”), among the Company, certain wholly owned guarantor subsidiaries of the Company party thereto (the “Guarantors”), and The Bank of…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-0.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.