Reading BXMT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact BXMT's outlook. Earnings quality is robust, while management's recent track record is neutral, indicating stability. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is full. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so the read leans on sales- and cash-based methods. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.36. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $18 BXMT trades at 2× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $18 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 1% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.36 → $0.37 (+3.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 7 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.1% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -35.1% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$198.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,202.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation changed, moving to a label of "full." Risk fell, indicating a decrease in overall risk. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the environment. Recent financial performance is weak, which may impact future assessments.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates. This affects BXMT's borrowing costs and profits. Investors will pay attention.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates, leading to improved margins for BXMT.
Confirms the other:FOMC cuts rates, leading to tighter margins for BXMT.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BXMT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Indenture and 6.250% Senior Secured Notes due 2031 On May 19, 2026, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) completed its previously announced offering of $450,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 6.250% Senior Secured Notes due 2031 (the “Notes”) under an indenture, dated as of May 19, 2026 (the “Indenture”), among the Company, certain wholly owned guarantor subsidiaries of the Company party thereto (the “Guarantors”), and The Bank of…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | fair | moderate |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
BXMT aims to maintain its dividend per share at $0.47, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns.
BXMT focuses on managing cash from operating activities to ensure liquidity and operational efficiency.
BXMT is focused on addressing its negative net income to improve financial performance.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if BXMT can address its negative net income. Investors will focus on earnings per share and dividend stability.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings show a net income improvement or EPS above $(0.04).
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows continued net losses or EPS below $(0.04).
Why it matters: A reduction in net loss would show BXMT is improving its financial health. Investors want to see progress.
Confirms:Net loss in Q2 is less than $6.3 million.
Disproves:Net loss in Q2 is greater than $6.3 million.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows BXMT cares about its shareholders. A cut may mean money problems.
Confirms:Dividend remains at $0.47 for the next quarter.
Disproves:Dividend drops below $0.47.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and will not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific…
Other Events. On May 5, 2026, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a purchase agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”), by and among the Company, BXMT Advisors L.L.C., the subsidiary guarantors party thereto and Citigroup Global Markets Inc., as representative of the several initial purchasers listed therein (the “Initial Purchasers”), providing for the issuance and sale of $450 million aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 6.250% Senior Secured Notes due 2031 (the “…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . On February 11, 2026, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) has appointed Marcin Urbaszek, the Company’s current Deputy Chief Financial Officer, to serve as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and Assistant Secretary, effective as of the close of business on Febru…