Reading AGNC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AGNC free→Reading AGNC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AGNC free→NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect AGNC's performance compared to its peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include potential changes in interest rates and the performance of sector bellwethers. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $10 AGNC trades at 7× p/e, below its 10× p/e peer median. Our $8.68 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 20% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.58x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.38 → $0.38 (-0.2% / 30d). 5 raised, 5 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 36% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$97.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$177.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,868.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'expensive'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Interest rates can change mortgage rates. This can impact AGNC's investment returns.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates by 25 basis points or more.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AGNC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 28, 2026, AGNC Investment Corp. (the “Company”) implemented a new “at the market” common stock issuance program by entering into separate sales agreements (each, a “Sales Agreement” and collectively, the “Sales Agreements”) with each of Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Academy Securities, Inc., Barclays Capital Inc., BTIG, LLC, Citadel Securities Institutional LLC, Citizens JMP Securities, LLC, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc., Moelis & Company LLC, Morga…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | fair | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
AGNC aims to maintain a consistent dividend payout of $0.36 per share.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. AGNC has consistently maintained a dividend of $0.36 per share from 2025-Q1 to 2026-Q1. Despite fluctuations in net income, the dividend payout has remained stable, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns.
“Dividend per share was $0.36.”
“Dividend per share was $0.36.”
“Dividend per share was $0.36.”
“Dividend per share was $0.36.”
AGNC has initiated a new 'at the market' common stock issuance program.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. AGNC announced a new 'at the market' stock issuance program in May 2026, partnering with several financial institutions. This initiative aims to enhance capital flexibility, though its financial impact is yet to be observed.
“Implemented a new 'at the market' stock issuance program.”
AGNC emphasizes improving cash flow from operations to support its financial stability.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operations increased significantly from $128M in 2025-Q4 to $387M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress in operational efficiency. This improvement supports AGNC's financial stability and operational focus.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects the economy. It can also influence AGNC's performance.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is revised up to above 2% for Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is revised down to below 1% for Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact the real estate sector's outlook and AGNC's performance.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.2% month over month.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 20, 2026, AGNC Investment Corp. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The text of the aforementioned press release is included as exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The press release included the following financial information for the quarter: • Total comprehensive loss for the first quarter of 2026 of $(0.18) per share of common stock, comprised of $(0.17) net loss per common share and…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 26, 2026, AGNC Investment Corp. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The text of the aforementioned press release is included as exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The press release included the following financial information for the quarter: • Total comprehensive income for the fourth quarter of 2025 of $0.89 per share of common stock, comprised of $0.83 net income per common sha…
Departure of Directors or Certain Executive Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements with Certain Officers. The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of AGNC Investment Corp. (the “Company”) increased the size of the Board from nine to ten members and appointed Morris A. Davis to the Board, effective January 12, 2026, to a term that continues until the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders and until his successor is duly elected and qualif…
Departure of Directors or Certain Executive Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements with Certain Officers. At a meeting held on December 9, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of AGNC Investment Corp. (the “Company”) increased the size of the Board from eight to nine members and appointed Christine L. Hurtsellers to the Board, effective immediately, to a term that continues until the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders and u…
“Cash from operations was $387M.”
“Cash from operations was $128M.”