Reading ORC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ORC free→Reading ORC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ORC free→NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is weak, with volatile management and fragile earnings quality. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate, although ORC is above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.62 ORC trades at 9× p/e, below its 10× p/e peer median. Our $8.95 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 26% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 69%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Not enough signal yet.
Over the trailing year it converted 1.17x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.32 → $0.35 (+9.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -68.3% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$86.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$182.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,657.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
As of June 16, 2026, valuation fell. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Risk is moderate. Earnings quality is fragile, and management is volatile.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for the company's future. A rebound indicates stronger demand.
Confirms:Revenue growth speeds up again, reaching over 5% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ORC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 9, 2026, the Company announced that the Board declared a dividend for the month of June 2026 of $0.10 per share of the Common Stock, to be paid on July 30, 2026 to holders of record on June 30, 2026, with an ex-dividend date of June 30, 2026. In addition, the Company announced certain details of its RMBS portfolio as of May 31, 2026, as well as certain other information regarding the Company. A copy of the Company’s press release announcing the dividend and the other inf…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2021-Q1, 2021-Q2, 2021-Q3, 2022-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ORC Orchid Island Capital, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
16 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to pay a monthly dividend of $0.10 per share as declared for June 2026.
Focus on increasing revenue, which grew to $157.8 million in 2026-Q1.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision can affect interest rates. It also impacts how investors feel about real estate.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates or signals a hawkish stance.
Confirms the other:FOMC holds rates steady or signals a dovish stance.
Why it matters: The dividend payout is important for investor trust. Keeping it shows stability.
Confirms:The company maintains or increases the dividend payout for July 2026.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend payout for July 2026.
Other Events. On May 13, 2026, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that the Board of Directors of the Company declared a dividend for the month of May 2026 of $0.10 per share of the Company’s common stock, to be paid on June 29, 2026, to holders of record on May 29, 2026, with an ex-dividend date of May 29, 2026. In addition, the Company announced certain details of its RMBS portfolio as of April 30, 2026, as well as certain other information regarding the Company. A copy of…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition,” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any disclosure document of the Company, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such document. Caution About Forward-Looking Statements. This Current Report on Form 8-K contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 15, 2026, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its estimated book value of 7.08 per share as of March 31, 2026, certain details of its RMBS portfolio as of March 31, 2026, and estimated GAAP net loss per share of $0.11, including an estimated $0.37 per share of net realized and unrealized losses on RMBS and derivative instruments, for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. These figures and the estimated book value per share…
Other Events. On April 15, 2026, the Company announced that the Board of Directors of the Company declared a dividend for the month of April 2026 of $0.10 per share of the Company’s common stock, to be paid on May 28, 2026, to holders of record on April 30, 2026, with an ex-dividend date of April 30, 2026. In addition, the Company announced certain details of its RMBS portfolio as of March 31, 2026 as well as certain other information regarding the Company. A copy of the Company’s press relea…