Reading PMT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PMT free→Reading PMT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PMT free→NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash flow. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from PMT and the performance of sector bellwethers like AGNC, DX, and ARR. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $10 PMT trades at 9× p/e, below its 10× p/e peer median. Our $11 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 7% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 43%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted -90.54x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.40 → $0.31 (-22.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 11% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$97.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$237.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,982.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The upcoming earnings report will show if the earnings miss is a trend or a one-time issue.
Confirms:Q2 earnings results show a loss greater than the previous quarter's loss of $X.
Disproves:Q2 earnings results show a profit or a smaller loss than the previous quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PMT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Election of Trustee . On June 15, 2026, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (the “Company”) elected Scott Sauer as a Class III Trustee. Mr. Sauer will serve until the Company’s 2027 Annual Meeting of Shareholders and until his successor is duly elected and qualified or until his earlier death, resignation or re…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | fair | moderate |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to complete approximately 30 securitizations in 2026 to support future earnings.
The company is committed to maintaining a dividend per share of $0.4.
Management aims to achieve and maintain positive net income.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend level shows financial strength and investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 earnings per share reported at or above $0.40.
Disproves:Q2 earnings per share reported below $0.40.
Why it matters: Missing earnings raises concerns about future performance. It can hurt investor trust.
Confirms:The next earnings report shows a big increase in earnings from last quarter.
Disproves:Earnings keep missing expectations or drop further.
Why it matters: Positive net income is key for long-term success and growth.
Confirms:Reporting a quarter with positive net income.
Disproves:More net losses are expected in the next quarters.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength and care for shareholders.
Confirms:Announcement confirming the dividend remains at $0.4 per share for the next quarter.
Disproves:Dividend cut below $0.4 per share.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can show economic weakness. This can affect PMT's mortgage business.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000 for the week ending June 4.
Disproves:Unemployment claims fall below 250,000 for the week ending June 4.
Why it matters: Changes in book value per share show the company's financial health and asset management.
Confirms one read:Book value per share increases from $14.98.
Confirms the other:Book value per share decreases from $14.98.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (the “Company”) issued a press release and a slide presentation announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. Copies of the press release and the slide presentation used in connection with the Company’s presentation of financial results were made available on May 5, 2026 and are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively. In addition, the Company has…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release and the slide presentation used in connection with the Company’s presentation of financial results were made available on January 29, 2026 and are furnished as Exhibits 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively. In addition, the Company has ma…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 21, 2025, PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (the “Company”) issued a press release and a slide presentation announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release and the slide presentation used in connection with the Company’s presentation of financial results were made available on October 21, 2025 and are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively. In addition, th…