Reading TRTX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record is neutral, and the capital stance is unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, TRTX trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. If TRTX cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.49 TRTX trades at 9× p/e, below its 10× p/e peer median. Our $6.82 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 25% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.46x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.25 → $0.25 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$96.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$197.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,590.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and became expensive. The sector backdrop remained a headwind. The risk dimension was moderate. The management capital stance was capital unfriendly.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can impact real estate loans and investment choices.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates in the June meeting.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TRTX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Senior Secured Credit Agreement On May 14, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (the “Company”), as borrower, entered into a Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. (“Wells Fargo”), as administrative agent and collateral agent (in such capacities, the “Agent”), and certain other lenders and issuing banks named therein. The Credit Agreement provides for, among other things, term loans in an aggregate pri…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TRTX TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | moderate |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a consistent dividend of $0.24 per share to shareholders.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share remains at $0.24 consistently across the period, indicating a stable capital allocation strategy. The company is delivering on its commitment to maintain this dividend level.
“Dividend per share remains at $0.24.”
“Dividend per share remains at $0.24.”
“Dividend per share remains at $0.24.”
“Dividend per share remains at $0.24.”
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operating activities to support financial stability.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Cash from operating activities increased to $24.57 million in 2026-Q1, showing a slight decline from $24.73 million in 2025-Q2. The trajectory shows limited progress in enhancing cash flow.
Ensure EPS guidance remains stable to provide predictability to investors.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. EPS guidance for 2026 is set at $0.19 per share, providing a stable outlook for investors. This is the first quarter this guidance has been explicitly stated, indicating a focus on maintaining predictability.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the real estate market.
Confirms:Real estate revenue growth accelerates back toward its highs, above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth continues to slow or stays below 5% year over year.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless it is specifically inco…
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless it is specifically inco…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. CLO Transaction Overview On November 17, 2025 (the “FL7 CLO Closing Date”), TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a collateralized loan obligation (“TRTX 2025-FL7” or “FL7 CLO”) through its wholly-owned subsidiaries, TRTX 2025-FL7 Issuer, Ltd., an exempted company incorporated with limited liability under the laws of the Cayman Islands, as issuer (the “FL7 Issuer”), and TRTX 2025-FL7 Co-Issuer, LLC, a Delaware limited liability com…
“Cash from operating activities increased to $24.57 million.”
“Cash from operating activities increased to $24.57 million.”
“Cash from operating activities increased to $24.65 million.”
“Cash from operating activities increased to $24.73 million.”
“EPS guidance for 2026 is set at $0.19 per share.”