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Chimera Investment Corp. (CIM)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$13.54+1.20%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact CIM's outlook. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Mortgage
- Market cap
- $1.12B
- Employees
- 423
- IPO date
- 2008-03-03
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.54. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$18.97consensus
Range $18.93 – $21.07
vs price: -29% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$13.46consensus
Range $8.77 – $20.35
vs price: +1% above
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $13 CIM trades at 7× p/e, below its 9× p/e peer median. Our $16 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
7.2x
peer 9.4x · own history —
Premium
0.8x peer
Growth the price needs
-16%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$15.90
range $15.87 – $17.56
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivefair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 16% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
20th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted -2.82x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
2nd pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral3 analysts, 20% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.53 → $0.52 (-2.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$95.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$229.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,819.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Valuation changed. It rose from "inexpensive" to "fair." Risk remained moderate. Earnings quality is fragile. The sector backdrop is a headwind. Recent financial performance is weak.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for the quarterly dividend to remain at $0.45 per share
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It shows they care about shareholders. If they change it, investors may lose confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The company declares a quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share for Q3.
Disproves:The company lowers the quarterly dividend to below $0.45 per share.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CIM yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CIM and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like AGNC, DX, and ARR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting CIM and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CIM raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-11), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If CIM cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-11), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like AGNC, DX, and ARR start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping CIM and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-116d agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 11, 2026, the registrant issued a press release announcing the declaration of its second quarter cash dividend of $0.45 per share of common stock. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. A copy of the press release is being furnished pursuant to Item 7.01, and the information contained therein shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.