Chimera Investment Corp. (CIM)

NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-10-23

$8.42-0.36%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Chimera Investment Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	100.16M
EPS	—	0.453
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	413.11M
EPS	—	1.897
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	411.8M
EPS	—	1.995

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share	Dividend maintenance supports steady income.	Intact	quarterly dividend falls below $0.45 per share in FY26	Dividend per share: $0.45 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.45 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260.45 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7bf2d834-474f-413b-88f7-f1d7372b360e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 quarters including 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2 and in press releases dated 2026-06-11 and 2026-09-17. The Board consistently declared and maintained a quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share throughout 2026. This matches the Board's stated expectation and the dividend payments have been consistent, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Earnings available for distribution of $141 million	Earnings available for distribution were $141 million in 2025-Q4.	Intact	earnings available for distribution fall below $141 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue decline limited to about -46% in next year	A supporting condition in Chimera Investment Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline no worse than -46% YoY.	Intact	revenue decline exceeds -46% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.34B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$342,590,890	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$342,590,890	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$342,590,890	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$376,959,750	4 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$342,590,890	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$376,959,750	4 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$342,590,890	4 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$376,959,750	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$342,590,890	4 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$342,590,890	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$376,959,750	4 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$342,590,890	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$342,590,890	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$376,959,750	4 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$376,959,750	4 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$341,770,890	4 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$341,770,890	4 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$376,959,750	4 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$376,959,750	4 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$376,959,750	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$376,959,750	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	3
2026-06-01	1	4
2026-07-01	1	4
2026-08-01	1	4
2026-09-01	1	4
2026-10-01	1	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.45 per shareDividend per share: $0.45 per share
Earnings available for distribution of $141 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue decline limited to about -46% in next yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Chimera Investment Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CIM is a rate-sensitive real estate investment with fragile earnings quality, weak recent performance, and a loss-making value profile. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management has maintained the dividend and worked to reshape the portfolio, but recent results and momentum remain weak.

What's priced into Chimera Investment Corp.

The valuation evidence is mixed: CIM is tagged as stretched, yet the stated driver is that it looks cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is modest, and the evidence does not show that the market has fully priced in the business’s execution risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, performance faces a meaningful risk of another weak report, and a guidance cut would add pressure to the business outlook. Management has maintained the quarterly dividend and redeployed capital, while earnings available for distribution have remained around $45 million; however, recent financial performance is weak and company momentum has deteriorated.

What Chimera Investment Corp. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether management avoids a guidance cut and keeps earnings available for distribution sufficient to support the dividend. Fed rate cuts and continued strength from sector peers could improve the backdrop, while weaker peer results or further execution problems would weigh on the multi-year view.