Reading ABR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ABR free→Reading ABR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ABR free→NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, while compared with sector peers, ABR is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 46% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.16. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.17 ABR trades at 6× p/e, below its 10× p/e peer median. Our $8.56 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 40% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.70x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.04 → $0.04 (-1.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$154.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$407.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,558.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in distributable earnings shows problems with loans and making money.
Confirms:Q2 distributable earnings were below $0.07 per share.
Disproves:Q2 distributable earnings were at or above $0.07 per share.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ABR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ABR Arbor Realty Trust | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Arbor Realty Trust aims to maintain its dividend payout to shareholders.
Arbor Realty Trust aims to enhance liquidity by closing securitization deals.
Arbor Realty Trust is focusing on its structured loan portfolio to drive growth.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can change Arbor's borrowing costs and loan amounts.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by more than 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 23, 2026, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (“Arbor”) announced that its consolidated subsidiary, Arbor Realty Commercial Real Estate Notes 2026-FL1, LLC (the “Issuer”), issued $673,990,000 principal amount of investment grade-rated notes (the “Offered Notes”) and $88,657,903 principal amount of below investment grade-rated notes (collectively with the Offered Notes, the “Notes”), evidencing a commercial real estate mortgage loan securitization (the…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The aggregate principal amounts of the following nine classes of Notes (each, a “Class”) were issued pursuant to the terms of the Indenture: (1) $442,335,000 aggregate principal amount of Class A Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes (“Class A Notes”); (2) $92,471,000 aggregate principal amount of Class A-S Secured Floating Rate Notes (“Class A-S Notes”); (3) $46,713,000 aggregate p…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 27, 2026 , Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. issued a press release announcing its earnings for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) has appointed Yoni Goodman, age 43, as its Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective February 17, 2026. Prior to joining the Company, from August 2024 through October 2025, Mr. Goodman served as a founding Principal of Green Pine Real Estate LLC (“GPRE”), a real estate private equity in…