Reading ARR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ARR free→Reading ARR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ARR free→NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 42% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $17.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17 ARR trades at 6× p/e, below its 10× p/e peer median. Our $24 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $13–$18. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 30% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.56x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.75 → $0.72 (-4.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -20.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$89.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$243.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,679.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how ARMOUR handles its portfolio and dividends in tough times.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows net income improving from the Q1 2026 loss of $54.8 million.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows continued losses or a decline in dividend payout.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ARR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 28, 2026 , ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. ( “ ARMOUR”) announced a cash dividend of $0.24 per share, payable to holders of ARMOUR common stock for the month of June 2026, as set forth below: Holder of Record Date Payment Date June 15, 2026 June 29, 2026 A copy of ARMOUR’s press release announcing the dividend information is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by this reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$13.00 – $18.00 (median $14.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-04
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ARR Armour Residential REIT | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
ARMOUR aims to maintain a consistent dividend payout to its shareholders, focusing on intermediate-term stability.
ARMOUR focuses on managing leverage and risk through dynamic hedging and liquidity strategies.
ARMOUR aims to maintain access to equity capital and financing at attractive rates and terms.
Why it matters: The dividend payout shows ARMOUR's ability to maintain cash flow and investor trust. A consistent dividend is important for REITs.
Confirms:The company confirms the June 2026 dividend of $0.24 per share is paid on June 29, 2026.
Disproves:The company will cut or stop the June 2026 dividend payment.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend payout is important for investor trust. It shows ARMOUR's financial health.
Confirms:ARMOUR declares a dividend of $0.24 per share for July 2026.
Disproves:ARMOUR cuts the dividend below $0.24 per share.
Why it matters: Changes in leverage ratios show how well ARMOUR manages risk. High leverage can mean financial trouble.
Confirms:The leverage ratio is improving. This shows better risk management.
Disproves:Leverage ratio gets worse, showing higher financial risk.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 30, 2026, at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”) of ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (“ARMOUR”), ARMOUR’s stockholders approved ARMOUR’s Fourth Amended and Restated 2009 Stock Incentive Plan (the “Fourth A&R Plan”), which provides for the granting of common stock, par value $0.001 per share (“Common Stock”) of ARMOU…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026 , ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its unaudited Q1 results and March 31, 2026 financial position. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exc…
Other Events. On April 21, 2026 , ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. ( “ ARMOUR”) announced a cash dividend of $0.24 per share, payable to holders of ARMOUR common stock for the month of May 2026, as set forth below: Holder of Record Date Payment Date May 15, 2026 May 28, 2026 A copy of ARMOUR’s press release announcing the dividend information is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by this reference.
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 30, 2026, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (“ARMOUR” or the “Company”) and ARMOUR Capital Management LP., a Delaware limited partnership and the Company's external manager ("ACM"), further amended and restated the management agreement between ARMOUR and ACM (as further amended and restated, the “Ninth Amended and Restated Management Agreement”) to extend the base term of the management agreement by 3.25 additional years from December 31, 2029,…