Armour Residential REIT (ARR)

NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-10-23

$12.88+1.50%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Armour Residential REIT’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	122.45M
EPS	—	0.694
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	98.25M
EPS	—	0.707
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	465.16M
EPS	—	2.87
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	523.28M
EPS	—	2.808

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Raise capital via stock offerings totaling about $142 million	The company raised $141.8 million in capital last quarter.	Intact	capital raised falls below $141.8 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 supplied quarters through repeated capital issuance. Common stock proceeds were $205.7 million in Q3 2026 versus $218.7 million in Q2, and Q3 also included $2.5 million of preferred stock issuance. The program produced substantial capital in both quarters, while book value per common share fell from $17.53 at June 30 to $14.55 at September 30, so delivery on issuance is clear but outcomes were mixed. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain monthly common stock dividends at $0.24 per share	Armour pays steady monthly dividends of $0.24 per share.	Intact	monthly dividend falls below $0.24 per share	Dividend per share: $0.72 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.24 per share monthly. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Oct 21, 20260.72 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f9daaf17-ad46-45bd-95d4-f14679ea6815. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS near $0.24 per share monthly or $2.93 annually	Earnings per share are expected near $0.24 monthly.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.24 monthly or $2.93 annually	Diluted EPS: $-2.26 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.24 per share monthly or $2.93 annually. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 21, 2026-2.26 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f9daaf17-ad46-45bd-95d4-f14679ea6815. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain liquidity above $1 billion	Liquidity stays above $1 billion.	Intact	liquidity falls below $1.0 billion	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$2.95 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.95	Unavailable	6 / 2
2026-07-25	$2.99	Unavailable	6 / 2
2026-07-26	$2.99	Unavailable	6 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-28	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-29	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-30	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-31	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-01	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-02	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-03	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-04	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-05	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-06	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-08	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-09	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-10	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-11	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-12	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-13	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	4
2026-06-01	2	4
2026-07-01	2	4
2026-08-01	2	4
2026-09-01	2	4
2026-10-01	2	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

B.Riley FinancialOct 22

$14.50New observation · no comparable prior

$0$7.98$15.95

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Raise capital via stock offerings totaling about $142 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain monthly common stock dividends at $0.24 per shareDividend per share: $0.72 per share
EPS near $0.24 per share monthly or $2.93 annuallyDiluted EPS: $-2.26 per share
Maintain liquidity above $1 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Armour Residential REIT outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ARR is a rate-sensitive real estate investment with a dividend-focused profile, but the evidence does not establish a durable growth path. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent performance is weak, management execution is mixed, and confidence in the overall assessment is low.

What's priced into Armour Residential REIT

ARR is described as cheap versus peers, while the valuation signal is marked justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, but the evidence does not explain its exact meaning, so the market’s specific assumptions are unclear.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent earnings misses, a 50% miss probability, and a sharp decline in company momentum point to continued execution risk. In Q3, the monthly dividend stayed at $0.24 per share and the interest spread edged up, but distributable earnings softened and the company reported a GAAP net loss; book value per share also fell from the prior quarter.

What Armour Residential REIT hinges on

The multi-year view depends in part on whether management can sustain the dividend while improving earnings coverage and protecting book value. Near-term swing factors include possible guidance cuts, changes in interest rates, and whether sector peers continue to report strong earnings and raise guidance.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, ARR’s thesis remains uncertain: the maintained dividend and slight spread improvement are positives, but weak results, falling book value, and volatile management execution weigh on the case. The evidence supports close attention to results and guidance, not a confident long-term conclusion. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	122.45M
EPS	—	0.694
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	98.25M
EPS	—	0.707
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	465.16M
EPS	—	2.87
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	523.28M
EPS	—	2.808

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$2.95 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.95	Unavailable	6 / 2
2026-07-25	$2.99	Unavailable	6 / 2
2026-07-26	$2.99	Unavailable	6 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-28	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-29	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-30	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-31	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-01	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-02	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-03	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-04	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-05	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-06	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-08	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-09	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-10	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-11	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-12	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-13	$2.93	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings