NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-07-31
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Create your account →Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Mortgage REITs is in recovery. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Maintain dividend per share at $0.7: $0.79 vs $0.70.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 27% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 12%, softest on free-cash-flow margins.
View QualityManagement screens strong on earnings delivery.
View ManagementExpectations look high — what the market is pricing in runs ahead of what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskNLY's earnings growth has weakened, making it less attractive as an investment. Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. The stock trades at 7.6× P/E, below the 9.5× peer median. The market is pricing in more growth than expected, indicating full expectations. A specific risk is the 32% probability of missing earnings in the next quarter. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-31. NLY is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 13 analysts currently covering NLY (as of Jul 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-08-01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Mortgage REITs — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Advances: Increase net income
Earnings beat supports net income growth objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-31. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Maintain dividend per share at $0.7
Dividend hike supports capital allocation objective.
