Annaly Capital Management (NLY)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-10-29
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put NLY beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Mortgage REITs is in recovery. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 28% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 13%, softest on share dilution.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — what the market is pricing in runs ahead of what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskNLY's case rests on maintaining its dividend and expanding residential credit production. Recent non-GAAP EPS beat estimates twice, but revenue growth data are absent. NLY trades at 6× P/E versus the 8.5× peer median. The market is pricing more growth than our forecast. Its next-quarter miss probability is 33%, with expectations already full. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. NLY is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 13 analysts currently covering NLY (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 4 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for NLY in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare NLY with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLY Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Mortgage REITs — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put NLY next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Expand Residential Credit production and securitization
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $18.47
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $18.47.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Non-QM origination expectations and targeted agency returns support residential credit growth and portfolio diversification.

Advances: Maintain dividend per share at $0.7 or higher
Rating upgrade supports maintaining dividend per share.

Advances: Maintain dividend per share at $0.7 or higher
Dividend increase supports capital allocation objective.

Advances: Increase net income
Earnings beat supports net income growth objective.

Advances: Maintain dividend per share at $0.7
Dividend hike supports capital allocation objective.