Annaly Capital Management (NLY)

NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-10-23

$18.35+0.05%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Annaly Capital Management’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.12 → 3.14 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	718.89M
EPS	—	0.785
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	561.24M
EPS	—	0.784
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.47B
EPS	—	3.12
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.84B
EPS	—	3.135

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend per share at $0.7	Annaly pays a strong dividend of $0.7 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.7 in any quarter	Dividend per share: $0.75 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.7 per share quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 29, 20260.75 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6a8bc205-2c73-4641-a1d4-e05d226ccd66. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase net income to at least $282.7M quarterly	Net income rose to $282.7M in Q1 2026.	Recovered	net income falls below $282.7M in any quarter	Net income: $822.673M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $282.7M net income per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026822,673,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6a8bc205-2c73-4641-a1d4-e05d226ccd66. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain operating income at or above $289.0M quarterly	Operating income improved to $289.0M in the same quarter.	Intact	operating income falls below $289.0M in any quarter	Operating income: $2.159B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $289.0M operating income per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20262,158,677,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.14

$2.98 → $3.14 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.98	Unavailable	11 / 4
2026-07-25	$3.06	Unavailable	12 / 4
2026-07-26	$3.10	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-27	$3.10	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-28	$3.06	Unavailable	12 / 4
2026-07-29	$3.10	$2,392,511,000	13 / 5
2026-07-30	$3.10	$2,392,511,000	13 / 5
2026-07-31	$3.11	$2,392,511,000	13 / 5
2026-08-01	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-02	$3.11	$2,392,511,000	13 / 5
2026-08-03	$3.11	$2,392,511,000	13 / 5
2026-08-04	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-05	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-06	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-07	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-08	$3.11	$2,392,511,000	13 / 5
2026-08-09	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-10	$3.11	$2,392,511,000	13 / 5
2026-08-12	$3.11	$2,392,511,000	13 / 5
2026-08-13	$3.11	$2,392,511,000	13 / 5
2026-08-14	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-15	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-16	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-17	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-18	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-19	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-20	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-21	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-22	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-23	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-24	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-25	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-26	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-27	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-28	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-29	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-30	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-31	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-01	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-02	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-03	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-04	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-05	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-06	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-07	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-08	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-09	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-10	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-11	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-12	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-13	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-14	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-15	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-16	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-17	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-18	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-19	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-20	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-21	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-22	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-23	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-24	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-25	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-26	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-27	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-28	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-29	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-30	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-10-01	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-10-02	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-10-03	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-10-04	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-10-05	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-10-06	$3.13	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-10-07	$3.13	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-10-08	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-09	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-10	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-11	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-12	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-13	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-14	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-15	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-16	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-17	$3.12	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-18	$3.13	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-19	$3.13	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-20	$3.13	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-21	$3.13	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-22	$3.13	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-23	$3.13	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-24	$3.14	Unavailable	8 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	4
2026-06-01	9	4
2026-07-01	9	4
2026-08-01	9	4
2026-09-01	9	4
2026-10-01	9	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 22

$22.00New observation · no comparable prior

RBC CapitalOct 22

$21.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 22

$21.00New observation · no comparable prior

BTIGOct 6 · prior Jun 17

$24.00 → $21.00-12.5%

$0$13.20$26.40

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend per share at $0.7Dividend per share: $0.75 per share
Increase net income to at least $282.7M quarterlyNet income: $822.673M
Maintain operating income at or above $289.0M quarterlyOperating income: $2.159B

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-25.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Annaly Capital Management outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an income-oriented financial company with exposure across three investment strategies, rather than a clear growth story. Its multi-year view is in a watch state: management delivery is mixed, while the quarterly dividend remained covered by reported earnings available for distribution.

What's priced into Annaly Capital Management

The valuation evidence describes NLY as cheap versus peers, with medium confidence and an expectations gap of 0.37. The priced-in assessment says fragility is low and not driven by a full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence, though weak execution quality is recognized.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent financial performance is weak relative to its industry cohort, despite earnings beats on October 20 and July 21 and a marked rise in company momentum. EAD edged up to $0.80 per share in Q3 and covered the $0.75 dividend, but GAAP leverage rose to 8.0x, leaving management’s capital discipline mixed.

What Annaly Capital Management hinges on

The near-term thesis would weaken if NLY cuts guidance or if the Fed begins cutting rates from the current 3.88%; the evidence flags both as unfavorable scenarios. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers STWD, BXMT, and EFC would support sector momentum, while execution on portfolio balance, leverage, and liquidity remains important over the multi-year view.