Reading ADAM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from ADAM and the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.36. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.28 ADAM trades at 11× p/e, in line with its 10× p/e peer median. Our $9.09 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 30%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.59x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.24 → $0.24 (-0.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -36.1% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$123.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$268.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,193.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Total stock risk rose by 11.1 points (from 37.2 to 48.3).
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation changed and rose to "full." The sector backdrop fell, indicating a headwind for the company. Risk remained moderate, while recent financial performance was strong. The management score remained neutral, and earnings quality was described as fragile.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This dividend shows the company cares about its shareholders. A steady or growing dividend means good financial health.
Confirms:The company pays the declared dividend of $0.27 per share on July 28, 2026.
Disproves:The company cuts or stops the dividend payment.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ADAM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Third Amendment to the 2017 Equity Incentive Plan As described below in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ADAM Adamas Trust, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | moderate |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Adamas Trust aims to increase its dividend per share, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Adamas Trust is focused on improving its operating income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Adamas Trust is committed to enhancing net income through strategic investments and operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: An increase in book value per share indicates strong asset management and financial health. It reflects the company's growth strategy.
Confirms:Book value per share increases beyond $9.98 in the next quarter.
Disproves:Book value per share decreases or remains stagnant.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how well the company is growing and making money. Strong results can help investors feel more confident.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) exceeds $0.41, showing continued growth.
Confirms the other:EPS drops below $0.29, which may show problems with earnings growth.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choices on interest rates can change real estate investments and borrowing costs. These changes may affect Adamas's money plans.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates, which makes borrowing costs higher for real estate.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps rates steady or lowers them, reducing borrowing costs.
Other Events. Common Stock ATM Program On June 12, 2026, Adamas Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an equity distribution agreement (the “Equity Distribution Agreement”) with JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC, BTIG, LLC and B. Riley Securities, Inc., as sales agents (the “Agents”), pursuant to which the Company may offer and sell, from time to time, shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.01 per share, having a maximum aggregate offering price of up to $250,000,000 (the…
Other Events. On June 11, 2026, the Board unanimously reappointed Lisa A. Pendergast to serve as Lead Independent Director. The Board also unanimously reappointed Steven R. Mumma to serve as Chairman of the Board. On June 11, 2026, the Company issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing that the Board declared a regular quarterly cash dividend on the Company’s common stock for the quarter ending June 30, 2026. The Company also announced in the Press Release that the Board declared…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Adamas Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. In addition, in conjunction with the press release announcing its financial results, the Company posted supplemental financial information on the “Events &…
Other Events. On March 19, 2026, Adamas Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing that its Board of Directors (the “Board”) declared a regular quarterly cash dividend on its common stock for the quarter ending March 31, 2026. The Company also announced in the Press Release that the Board declared cash dividends on the Company’s 8.00% Series D Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, the Company’s 7.875% Series E Fixed-to-Floating…