Adamas Trust, Inc. (ADAM)

NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-10-23

$7.81+1.03%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Adamas Trust, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	71.75M
EPS	—	0.223
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	283.54M
EPS	—	1.304
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	292.52M
EPS	—	1.024

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share increases to at least $0.27 by 2026-Q2	Adamas Trust raises dividends steadily, now $0.27 per share in 2026-Q2.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.27 by 2026-Q2	Dividend per share: $0.27 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.27 per share. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Jul 31, 20260.27 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4fad808b-9677-4aff-8fd5-bc7d993c9629. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 quarters including 2026-Q1 through 2026-Q2 and subsequent dividend declarations. Dividend per share increased from $0.23 in 2026-Q1 to $0.27 in 2026-Q2 and further to $0.30 declared for the next quarter. Management consistently links dividend increases to earnings strength and financial position, delivering on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS at least $0.27 for 2026-Q2 and $0.41 for 2026-FY	A supporting condition in Adamas Trust, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.27 for 2026-Q2 and >= $0.41 for 2026-FY.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $0.27 for 2026-Q2 or below $0.41 for 2026-FY	Diluted EPS: $0.47 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.27 for 2026-Q2 and >= $0.41 for 2026-FY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.47 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4fad808b-9677-4aff-8fd5-bc7d993c9629. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income grows to at least $48.6 million by 2026-Q1	Net income grew from $8.5M to $48.6M in the same period.	Improving	net income falls below $48.6 million by 2026-Q1	Net income: $55.182M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $48.6 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 202655,182,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4fad808b-9677-4aff-8fd5-bc7d993c9629. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated enhancing net income as a priority in 4 quarters from 2025-Q3 to 2026-Q2. Net income increased from $44.8 million in 2025-Q3 to $55.2 million in 2026-Q2, demonstrating delivery on this growth priority through portfolio expansion and earnings momentum. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves to at least $86.7 million by 2026-Q1	Operating income jumped from $4.3M to $86.7M in one year.	Improving	operating income falls below $86.7 million by 2026-Q1	Operating income: $53.066M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $86.7 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 202653,066,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4fad808b-9677-4aff-8fd5-bc7d993c9629. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management emphasized improving operating income in 4 quarters from 2025-Q3 to 2026-Q2. Operating income increased from $39.5 million in 2025-Q3 to $53.1 million in 2026-Q2, showing a positive trajectory. This reflects delivery on the priority of sustaining earnings growth through portfolio expansion and operational execution. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$1.13 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-25	$1.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-26	$1.13	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-27	$1.12	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-29	$1.12	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-30	$1.12	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-01	$1.17	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-02	$1.23	$229,582,200	6 / 5
2026-08-03	$1.23	$229,582,200	6 / 5
2026-08-04	$1.23	$229,582,200	6 / 5
2026-08-05	$1.23	$229,582,200	6 / 5
2026-08-06	$1.23	$229,582,200	6 / 5
2026-08-07	$1.23	$229,582,200	6 / 5
2026-08-08	$1.23	$229,582,200	6 / 5
2026-08-09	$1.23	$229,582,200	6 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-11	$1.23	$229,582,200	6 / 5
2026-08-12	$1.23	$229,582,200	6 / 5
2026-08-13	$1.23	$229,582,200	6 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	5
2026-06-01	2	5
2026-07-01	2	5
2026-08-01	2	5
2026-09-01	2	5
2026-10-01	2	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share increases to at least $0.27 by 2026-Q2Dividend per share: $0.27 per share
EPS at least $0.27 for 2026-Q2 and $0.41 for 2026-FYDiluted EPS: $0.47 per share
Net income grows to at least $48.6 million by 2026-Q1Net income: $55.182M
Operating income improves to at least $86.7 million by 2026-Q1Operating income: $53.066M

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Adamas Trust, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ADAM is a higher-risk, income-oriented Real Estate business with a cyclical sector backdrop. Its long-term thesis is intact: recent financial performance remains relatively strong, while company quality and momentum have weakened.

What's priced into Adamas Trust, Inc.

ADAM is described as cheap versus peers, but the overall setup is tagged as stretched, with only a modest expectations gap. This suggests the peer discount does not remove the risk that expectations are demanding relative to fragile earnings quality and volatile management execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong, and management has delivered on priorities to improve operating income, net income, and the dividend. However, quality and momentum indicators have weakened, and the Real Estate sector is a headwind; a guidance cut after the recent increase would also damage credibility.

What Adamas Trust, Inc. hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on whether earnings and operating execution can sustain recent gains without a guidance reversal. Fed rate cuts and continued earnings strength at sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker guidance or sector momentum would challenge the setup.