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Ladder Capital Corp. (LADR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this week
$10.11-0.20%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, LADR trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 56% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This valuation is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Mortgage
- Market cap
- $1.29B
- Employees
- 60
- IPO date
- 2013-12-24
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-23
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.11. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$7.73consensus
Range $7.15 – $8.08
vs price: +31% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$3.93consensus
Range $3.55 – $6.80
vs price: +157% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $10 LADR trades at 12× p/e, in line with its 10× p/e peer median. Our $7.73 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
11.6x
peer 9.7x · own history —
Premium
1.2x peer
Growth the price needs
31%
our forecast -5%
Our fair value
$7.73
range $7.21 – $7.91
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullrich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 31% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
34th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.97x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
55th pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -3.4% / 30d, n=7for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.25 → $0.24 (-3.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 7 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme sunbelt-migration.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$72.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$176.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,464.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and became expensive. The sector backdrop fell, indicating a headwind for the company. The risk dimension remains moderate, while management is stable. The overall context is provisional, with potential future changes in guidance and sector trends that could impact performance.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for revenue growth re-accelerating in the sector
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for Ladder Capital. This may improve its market position.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth in the real estate sector increases back toward its highs above 7%.
Disproves:Three-year revenue growth continues to decline or stays below 5%.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LADR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for LADR and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like AGNC, DX, and ARR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting LADR and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If LADR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If LADR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like AGNC, DX, and ARR start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping LADR and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-231mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Ladder Capital Corp (“Ladder”) issued a press release disclosing financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The information in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.