Ladder Capital Corp. (LADR)

NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-10-23

$9.31-0.11%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ladder Capital Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	59.8M
EPS	—	0.254
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	56.3M
EPS	—	0.256
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	274.53M
EPS	—	1.054
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	269.47M
EPS	—	1.09

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve EPS of $0.22 in fiscal year 2026	Ladder Capital aims to grow earnings in 2026 with an EPS target of $0.22.	Improving	EPS falls below $0.22 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.12 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.22 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 20260.12 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 17724afe-c77b-4def-82b5-8e90978bdaa3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve net income from Q1 2026 low of $2.6M	A primary condition in Ladder Capital Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is net income > $2.6M and trending upward.	Intact	net income remains flat or declines below $2.6M	Net income: $14.561M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income > $2.6M and trending upward. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 202614,561,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 17724afe-c77b-4def-82b5-8e90978bdaa3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain stable or positive revenue growth	A supporting condition in Ladder Capital Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue growth >= -0.3% YoY.	Intact	revenue growth falls below -0.3% YoY	Revenue growth: 24.66% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue growth >= -0.3% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 202624.657687 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 17724afe-c77b-4def-82b5-8e90978bdaa3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.09

$1.18 → $1.09 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.18	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-07-26	$1.17	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-27	$1.17	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-28	$1.17	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-29	$1.16	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-30	$1.16	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-31	$1.14	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-02	$1.14	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-03	$1.14	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-04	$1.14	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-05	$1.14	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-09	$1.13	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-10	$1.13	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-13	$1.13	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-24	$1.09	Unavailable	5 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	1
2026-06-01	6	1
2026-07-01	6	1
2026-08-01	6	1
2026-09-01	6	1
2026-10-01	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve EPS of $0.22 in fiscal year 2026Diluted EPS: $0.12 per share
Improve net income from Q1 2026 low of $2.6MNet income: $14.561M
Maintain stable or positive revenue growthRevenue growth: 24.66%

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ladder Capital Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

LADR is a rate-sensitive real estate lender, so this is a cyclical business rather than a steady compounder. Its thesis state is watch: the signal recently improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Ladder Capital Corp.

Valuation is neutral, and the model describes expectations as broadly aligned with fundamentals. LADR trades at a 1.2 premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is 0.06; the evidence does not suggest that fragility is fully reflected in valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results are mixed: the latest event was an earnings beat, after two in-line reports, while earnings quality remains fragile. Management reported over $700 million of new loan and securities investments in the third quarter, but debt increased from the second quarter and the supplied figures do not establish a sustained earnings trend.

What Ladder Capital Corp. hinges on

Over the next year, lower rates could support LADR and the wider real estate sector, while continued strong results from sector peers could add support. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; the key longer-term test is whether loan growth and investment activity translate into durable earnings and stronger financing capacity.