Reading DX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DX free→
Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-15
$13.13+1.51%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact DX's outlook. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Mortgage
- Market cap
- $2.78B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-22
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-20
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$8.88consensus
Range $7.14 – $14.46
vs price: +48% above
Method agreement — · 3 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$10.27consensus
Range $6.85 – $13.70
vs price: +28% above
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $13 DX trades at 7× p/e, below its 10× p/e peer median. Our $18 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
6.8x
peer 9.7x · own history —
Premium
0.7x peer
Growth the price needs
-25%
our forecast 100%
Our fair value
$17.57
range $15.35 – $18.40
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensivefair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 25% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 100%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -2.39x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatile11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +15.4% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.28 → $0.32 (+15.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$77.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$161.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,529.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · valuation_scoremoderate change
Valuation fell by 31.8 points (from 65.6 to 33.8).
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'expensive'.
Valuation changed. It rose from "inexpensive" to "fair." Risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is loss-making. Management is volatile but capital-friendly.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for Q2 earnings on July 20 showing better profits.
Why it matters: Higher earnings may mean Dynex is making more money.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows a better profit margin than Q1.
Disproves:The earnings report shows continued losses or no gain in profit margin.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DX yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for DX and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like AGNC, ARR, and ARI keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting DX and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If DX raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-01-26), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If DX cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-01-26), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like AGNC, ARR, and ARI start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping DX and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2226d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Current Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 21, 2026, the Board of Directors of Dynex Capital Inc. (the “Company”), approved a form of Indemnification Agreement (the “Indemnification Agreement”), and the Company intends to enter into an Indemnification Agreement with each of its directors and executive officers (each, an “Indemnitee”). The Indemnification Agreement provides generally…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+7.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.