Reading IVR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IVR free→Reading IVR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IVR free→NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, while IVR trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 36% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.07 IVR trades at 6× p/e, below its 10× p/e peer median. Our $11 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 30% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Not enough signal yet.
Over the trailing year it converted 2.66x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.48 → $0.52 (+8.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$83.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$200.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,653.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing and its financial health.
Confirms one read:Earnings beat expectations, showing strong performance and growth.
Confirms the other:Earnings did not meet expectations. This may show problems in operations or the market.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for IVR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events On June 12, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its monthly dividend for the Company's common stock and providing updates on the Company's book value, investment portfolio, liquidity, repurchase agreements, and leverage as of May 31, 2026. A copy of that press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and, solely with respect to the dividend information and such preliminary financial data provided (and any corresponding non-GAAP reconciliation), is incorporated h…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
IVR Invesco Mortgage Capital, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
22 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company announced a share buyback program to enhance shareholder value.
The company continues to prioritize maintaining its dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: Maintaining or increasing the dividend shows commitment to returning value. This can affect investor confidence and stock price.
Confirms:The company announces a dividend per share equal to or greater than $0.36.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend per share below $0.36.
Why it matters: The buyback could signal confidence in the company's value and improve earnings per share.
Confirms:The stock price went up a lot after the buyback announcement.
Disproves:The stock price declines or remains flat despite the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: The execution of the buyback could enhance shareholder value. Investors will look for specifics on how this impacts financials.
Confirms:The company shows a clear timeline for the buyback program. It also shares its financial impact.
Disproves:No updates or details on the buyback execution are provided in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Sector revenue growth affects how Invesco does. If it speeds up, it may mean better times for the company.
Confirms one read:If sector revenue growth speeds up again, it shows stronger demand.
Confirms the other:If sector revenue growth slows down or stays the same, it is a bad sign.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up again, it could help Invesco in a tough market.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the real estate sector shows an increase back toward previous highs.
Disproves:Revenue growth keeps slowing down or stays the same.
Other Events On May 14, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its monthly dividend for the Company's common stock and providing updates on the Company's book value, investment portfolio, liquidity, repurchase agreements, and leverage as of April 30, 2026. A copy of that press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and, solely with respect to the dividend information and such preliminary financial data provided (and any corresponding non-GAAP reconciliation), is incorporated…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (the “registrant”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Release”). The Release is attached to this Report as Exhibit 99.1 and the information contained in the Release is incorporated into this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 13, 2026, John M. Anzalone, Chief Executive Officer of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company of his retirement as our Chief Executive Officer, effective April 30, 2026, in connection with his planned retirement from his employment with Invesco Ltd. Mr. Anzalone is expected to provide support for the transition…
Other Events On April 15, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its monthly dividend for the Company's common stock and providing updates on the Company's book value, investment portfolio, liquidity, repurchase agreements, and leverage as of March 31, 2026. A copy of that press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and, solely with respect to the dividend information and such preliminary financial data provided (and any corresponding non-GAAP reconciliation), is incorporate…