Invesco Mortgage Capital, Inc. (IVR)

NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-10-23

$5.54+0.36%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Invesco Mortgage Capital, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	55.57M
EPS	—	0.44
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	204.45M
EPS	—	1.933
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	221.18M
EPS	—	1.661

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend payments near $0.36 per share	Analysts expect earnings near $2.08 per share in 2026.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.34 next year	Dividend per share: $0.36 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.36. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260.36 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 773cf3ae-f35b-4071-a968-05318849e6aa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company consistently declared monthly common stock dividends of $0.36 per share from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. Dividend per share remained stable at $0.36, demonstrating steady delivery on this commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain earnings near $2.08 per share in 2026	Analysts expect earnings near $2.08 per share in 2026.	Broken	EPS falls below $2.00 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.34 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $2.00. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260.34 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 773cf3ae-f35b-4071-a968-05318849e6aa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company consistently declared monthly common stock dividends of $0.36 per share from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. Dividend per share remained stable at $0.36, demonstrating steady delivery on this commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Limit revenue decline to no worse than -19% in next year	A supporting condition in Invesco Mortgage Capital, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue decline >= -19% YoY.	Intact	Revenue decline worse than -19% YoY next year	Revenue growth: 20.93% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue decline >= -19% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202620.933394 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 773cf3ae-f35b-4071-a968-05318849e6aa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Announce and execute share buyback program	A primary condition in Invesco Mortgage Capital, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Ongoing buyback announcements and repurchases each quarter.	Intact	No buyback announcements or repurchases for two consecutive quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. The company consistently announced monthly share buyback programs from 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q2. Financials show repurchase agreements borrowings increased from about $5.3B in 2025-Q4 to $6.2B in 2026-Q2, and common shares outstanding rose from 71.8M to 102.4M, indicating active capital allocation via share issuance and buybacks. The trajectory shows ongoing execution of the buyback program. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$2.02 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.02	Unavailable	6 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-07-26	$2.02	Unavailable	6 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-07-29	$2.02	Unavailable	6 / 1
2026-07-30	$2.02	Unavailable	6 / 1
2026-07-31	$2.02	Unavailable	6 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-08-02	$1.91	Unavailable	6 / 1
2026-08-03	$1.91	Unavailable	6 / 1
2026-08-04	$1.91	Unavailable	6 / 1
2026-08-05	$1.83	Unavailable	6 / 1
2026-08-06	$1.83	Unavailable	6 / 1
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-09	$1.83	Unavailable	6 / 1
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	4	1
2026-06-01	1	4	1
2026-07-01	1	4	1
2026-08-01	1	4	1
2026-09-01	1	4	1
2026-10-01	1	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend payments near $0.36 per shareDividend per share: $0.36 per share
Maintain earnings near $2.08 per share in 2026Published status: Broken
Limit revenue decline to no worse than -19% in next yearRevenue growth: 20.93%
Announce and execute share buyback programDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-40.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Invesco Mortgage Capital, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a rate-sensitive, income-oriented real estate investment, not a clear durable compounder. The thesis has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but the overall state remains insufficient because there is not enough recent financial history to assess it.

What's priced into Invesco Mortgage Capital, Inc.

IVR is described as cheap versus peers, while the valuation model has medium confidence and shows an expectations gap below its benchmark. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility. The evidence does not show a market assumption that would make the valuation case certain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, a recent earnings beat and continued buyback announcements have improved the signal, while management has maintained the stated dividend and liquidity priorities. Still, the industry has a high miss rate, recent quarters have included misses, and the next report carries meaningful execution risk. Leverage was stable most recently, though above its level in late 2025.

What Invesco Mortgage Capital, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on IVR avoiding guidance cuts and sustaining reliable results. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate names, while continued strong results from sector peers could help the broader sector backdrop. Management’s handling of leverage, liquidity, dividends, and share repurchases also matters over the multi-year view.