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Next print, the company's guidance track record, and the earnings events we've seen in the last few years.
Likelihood the company beats analyst consensus on its next print. Read from its own beat history plus how sector peers have been reporting. Not a price-direction call: a serial beater often has the beat already priced in.
Prints it beat consensus, recent quarters.
Indicative, not a guarantee. Base rate ~71%.
Industry peers that beat since this name last reported.
Management's most recent EPS guidance action.
expected = 0.35*own_median(7.4) + peer(0.2*-10.7) + term(0.0) → 0.44% (capped ±15.0)
Calibrated likelihood the company misses analyst consensus on its next print, read from its own miss history plus its industry base rate. A fundamental tilt, not a price call — and a quiet watch-flag, not an alarm.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Calibrated. Base rate ~24%.
Consecutive quarters it missed, most recent run.
How often this industry misses, baseline.
Industry peers that missed in the recent window.
in 36 days
Average absolute move on past earnings days.
Annualized: recent baseline volatility.
Of the last 1 guided quarters.
Actual vs. guided EPS, signed.
Excess return vs. sector ETF, day after print.
Provisional scorecard: fewer than 4 guided quarters in the corpus.
Earnings prints and pre-announcements detected in the SEC filing stream.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition,” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any disclosure document of the Company, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such document. Caution About Forward-Looking Statements. This Current Report on Form 8-K contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of…
Quarterly EPS and revenue actuals vs. consensus across the last eight quarters (including beat/miss size and the forward consensus heading into the next print) are on the way.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 15, 2026, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its estimated book value of 7.08 per share as of March 31, 2026, certain details of its RMBS portfolio as of March 31, 2026, and estimated GAAP net loss per share of $0.11, including an estimated $0.37 per share of net realized and unrealized losses on RMBS and derivative instruments, for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. These figures and the estimated book value per share…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition,” and shall be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. The information on the Company's website, including the supplemental financial information described in this Item 2.02, is not incorporated by reference into this Current Report on Form 8-K or in any disclosure document of the Company except as shall be expressly set forth therein. Caution About Forward-Looking Statements. This Current Repo…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 14, 2026, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its estimated book value of 7.54 per share as of December 31, 2025, certain details of its RMBS portfolio as of December 31, 2025, and estimated GAAP net income per share of $0.62, including an estimated $0.43 per share of net realized and unrealized gains on RMBS and derivative instruments, for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. These figures and the estimated book valu…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition,” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any disclosure document of the Company, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such document. Caution About Forward-Looking Statements. This Current Report on Form 8-K contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 15, 2025, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its estimated book value of $7.33 per share as of September 30, 2025, certain details of its RMBS portfolio as of September 30, 2025, and estimated GAAP net income per share of $0.53, including an estimated $0.37 per share of net realized and unrealized gains on RMBS and derivative instruments, for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. These figures and the estimated book…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition,” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any disclosure document of the Company, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such document. Caution About Forward-Looking Statements. This Current Report on Form 8-K contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 9, 2025, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its estimated book value of $7.21 per share as of June 30, 2025, certain details of its RMBS portfolio as of June 30, 2025, and estimated GAAP net loss per share of $0.29, including an estimated $0.45 per share of net realized and unrealized losses on RMBS and derivative instruments, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. These figures and the estimated book value per share and…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition,” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any disclosure document of the Company, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such document. Caution About Forward-Looking Statements. This Current Report on Form 8-K contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 9, 2025, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its estimated book value of $7.94 per share as of March 31, 2025, certain details of its RMBS portfolio as of March 31, 2025, and estimated GAAP net income per share of $0.18, including an estimated $0.17 per share of net realized and unrealized gains on RMBS and derivative instruments, for the quarter ended March 31, 2025. These figures and the estimated book value per share…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition,” and shall be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. The information on the Company's website, including the supplemental financial information described in this Item 2.02, is not incorporated by reference into this Current Report on Form 8-K or in any disclosure document of the Company except as shall be expressly set forth therin. Caution About Forward-Looking Statements. This Current Repor…