Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-09
$13.870.00%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS recovers to at least $0.37 next quarter: EPS 0.31 vs 0.37 target.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust manages cash well, with $169.7 million from operations in Q1 2026. The company aims to improve its negative net income, which was -$6.3 million in Q1 2026. Recent debt issuance and share buybacks show active capital management. If earnings recover, the stock could rebound.
The company is unprofitable with negative net income and missed EPS estimates by 48%. Revenue is expected to decline sharply by nearly 70%. The recent sharp share price drop reflects these risks. Management is behind on fixing losses, making recovery uncertain.
The price sits about 4% below our fair value near $18. Analysts expect about -70% revenue growth, which is very pessimistic. Our view is slightly more optimistic on earnings recovery but cautious given current losses.
Breaks if: cash from operating activities falls below $150 million next quarter
Focus on managing cash from operating activities to support financial stability and capital deployment.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving cash flow and managing negative net income. The current thesis state indicates a watchful approach as the company has shown recent financial strength but still faces significant challenges.
The market appears to price in a cheap valuation compared to peers, with an expectations gap suggesting that investors may not fully believe in the company's recovery. The current low fragility tier indicates that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news at this time.
Management is on track with its commitment to maintain dividends and improve cash flow, which has shown positive recent trends. However, the ongoing negative net income presents a challenge that could hinder overall financial performance in the near term.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 5 of last 5 quarters. Cash from operating activities showed variability but improved from $57.2 million in 2025-Q2 to $169.7 million in 2026-Q1, indicating management's focus on cash flow management is showing progress. The trajectory is delivering with positive cash flow in recent quarters.
“Cash from operating activities was $169.7 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was $136.3 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was negative $18.2 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was $57.2 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was $100.5 million.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.30 next quarter
Breaks if: net income remains negative through FY26
Focus on improving profitability to reduce or eliminate negative net income periods.
Stated in 4 of last 5 quarters. Net income declined from $39.6 million in 2025-Q4 to a net loss of $81.2 million in 2026-Q2, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability. Management continues to address this priority but the trajectory shows limited progress with recent negative earnings.
“Net loss attributable to Blackstone Mortgage Trust was $81.2 million.”
“Net income was negative $6.3 million.”
“Net income was positive $37.2 million.”
“Net income was negative $56.4 million.”
Breaks if: revenue falls below $85 million next quarter
The outlook for BXMT hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like NLY, STWD, and EFC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for BXMT, while any negative guidance from them could pose risks.
In the next 1 to 3 years, BXMT's ability to stabilize its earnings and maintain its dividend will be crucial. Not investment advice.