Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT)

NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-10-23

$10.60+0.19%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-3.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.42 → 1.37 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	147.86M
EPS	—	0.244
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	613.95M
EPS	—	1.027
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	570.14M
EPS	—	1.369

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operating activities at or above $169.7 million	Blackstone Mortgage Trust manages cash well, with $169.7 million from operations in Q1 2026.	Under Pressure	cash from operating activities falls below $150 million next quarter	Cash from operations: $-169.727M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=169,700,000 USD. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Jul 30, 2026-169,727,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 5 of last 5 quarters. Cash from operating activities showed variability but improved from $57.2 million in 2025-Q2 to $169.7 million in 2026-Q1, indicating management's focus on cash flow management is showing progress. The trajectory is delivering with positive cash flow in recent quarters. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS recovers to at least $0.37 next quarter	A primary condition in Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=0.37 USD per share.	Broken	EPS falls below $0.30 next quarter	Diluted EPS: $-0.48 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.37 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-09-30; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 30, 2026-0.48 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 292bbefa-a8dc-4adf-bf60-145609513c77. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income improves from negative $6.3 million	The company aims to improve its negative net income, which was -$6.3 million in Q1 2026.	Broken	net income remains negative through FY26	Net income: $-81.222M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= 0 USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026-81,222,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 292bbefa-a8dc-4adf-bf60-145609513c77. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 5 quarters. Net income declined from $39.6 million in 2025-Q4 to a net loss of $81.2 million in 2026-Q2, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability. Management continues to address this priority but the trajectory shows limited progress with recent negative earnings. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue stabilizes near $94 million next quarter	A supporting condition in Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=94,000,000 USD.	Broken	revenue falls below $85 million next quarter	Revenue: $380.708M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=94,000,000 USD. Target period ends 2026-09-30; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 30, 2026380,708,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.37

$1.95 → $1.37 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.95	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-25	$1.95	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-26	$1.95	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-27	$1.95	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-28	$1.95	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-29	$1.95	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-30	$1.95	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-31	$1.68	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-01	$1.86	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-02	$1.76	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-03	$1.76	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-04	$1.74	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-05	$1.63	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-06	$1.63	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-09	$1.55	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-11	$1.55	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-12	$1.55	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-20	$1.52	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-21	$1.52	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-22	$1.52	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-23	$1.52	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-24	$1.52	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-25	$1.52	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-26	$1.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-27	$1.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-28	$1.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-29	$1.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-30	$1.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-31	$1.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-01	$1.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-02	$1.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-03	$1.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-04	$1.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-05	$1.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-06	$1.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-07	$1.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-08	$1.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-09	$1.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-10	$1.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-11	$1.49	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-12	$1.43	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-13	$1.43	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-14	$1.43	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-15	$1.43	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-16	$1.43	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-17	$1.42	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-18	$1.42	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-19	$1.42	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-20	$1.42	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-21	$1.42	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-22	$1.42	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-23	$1.42	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-24	$1.42	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-25	$1.42	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-26	$1.42	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-27	$1.42	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-28	$1.42	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-29	$1.42	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-30	$1.42	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	$1.37	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-22	$1.37	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-23	$1.37	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-24	$1.37	Unavailable	5 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	2
2026-06-01	7	2
2026-07-01	7	3
2026-08-01	7	4
2026-09-01	5	4
2026-10-01	5	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operating activities at or above $169.7 millionPublished status: Under Pressure
EPS recovers to at least $0.37 next quarterPublished status: Broken
Net income improves from negative $6.3 millionPublished status: Broken
Revenue stabilizes near $94 million next quarterPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-49.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk financial-sector income and recovery story, not a steady earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is intact this month, though profitability remains a key weakness and confidence in the evidence is medium.

What's priced into Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.

BXMT is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and the expectations gap is marked as unjustified. The evidence does not clarify what specific earnings or recovery assumptions the market already reflects.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is in the top half of its industry, and the July earnings event was positive. Management has kept the dividend per share steady and reported progress in operating cash flow, but net income turned into a loss in 2026-Q2; the risk label also rose to elevated, with a near-term miss probability of 48%.

What Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. hinges on

The next earnings call is a key test: a guidance cut would signal a weaker outlook, while further progress on cash flow and profitability would support the thesis. The sector backdrop also matters, with rate cuts flagged as a headwind and continued strong results from sector peers as a possible source of support.