Rithm Capital (RITM)
NYSEFinancialsReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-09
$9.86-0.90%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Rithm Capital keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.25 per share. Revenue grew to $1.38 billion in Q1 2026, up from $1.29 billion in Q4 2025. The company is buying back shares and managing debt carefully. Earnings per share beat estimates recently, showing some strength.
Operating income fell from $206 million to $154 million in Q1 2026, showing weak profit growth. The company’s free cash flow yield is negative, which may limit dividend sustainability. Debt issuance adds financial risk. Revenue growth and earnings estimates have seen slight downward revisions.
The market price is about 42% below our fair value near $15, reflecting cautious sentiment. Analysts expect about 17% revenue growth, which the market roughly prices in. Our fair value is 19% above the Street median, indicating some upside versus consensus.
Breaks if: debt servicing costs rise materially or covenant breach occurs
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.25 in FY26
operating income falls below $154 million in any quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on asset management growth and stable dividends. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has been neutral and management execution shows some volatility.
The market appears to price RITM as a cheap option compared to peers, with expectations that are slightly below average. This suggests that investors may be anticipating mixed results in the near term, given the company's fragile earnings quality.
Management is on track with priorities like growing asset management revenue and maintaining a consistent dividend. However, revenue has shown slight declines, indicating potential challenges ahead despite some earnings growth.
The thesis hinges on the performance of major financial sector players like JPM, BAC, and GS. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support RITM's growth; conversely, any negative shifts could impact RITM's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: annual revenue falls below $5.94 billion in FY26
Overall, RITM's outlook is mixed, with stable dividends and growth priorities but some underlying challenges. Not investment advice.