Rithm Capital (RITM)

NYSEFinancialsReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-10-23

$9.39+8.18%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Rithm Capital’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.35 → 2.37 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.73B
EPS	—	0.701
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	5.9B
EPS	—	2.321
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	6.38B
EPS	—	2.372

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage debt levels to avoid financial strain	A supporting condition in Rithm Capital's published investment case. The stated target is No significant increase in debt servicing costs or covenant breaches.	Improving	debt servicing costs rise materially or covenant breach occurs	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend per share at $0.25	Rithm Capital keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.25 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.25 in FY26	Dividend per share: $0.25 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $0.25 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20260.25 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fb89e6fb-7f7e-413b-9de3-8c47141d9185. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of 4 supplied transcript quarters. The common dividend was $0.25 per share in Q1, Q2 and Q3 2026, while earnings available for distribution per diluted share moved from $0.51 in Q1 to $0.60 in Q2 and $0.55 in Q3. The unchanged dividend is being maintained, though the latest distribution measure was below Q2. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve operating income above $154 million quarterly	A supporting condition in Rithm Capital's published investment case. The stated target is >= $154 million per quarter.	Broken	operating income falls below $154 million in any quarter	Operating income: $6.794M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $154 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20266,794,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase revenue to at least $5.94 billion in FY26	A primary condition in Rithm Capital's published investment case. The stated target is >= $5.94 billion.	Intact	annual revenue falls below $5.94 billion in FY26	Revenue: $1.282B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.94 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20261,282,281,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fb89e6fb-7f7e-413b-9de3-8c47141d9185. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.37

$2.35 → $2.37 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.38B

$6.28B → $6.38B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.35	$6,284,283,170	11 / 6
2026-07-25	$2.35	$6,284,283,170	11 / 6
2026-07-26	$2.35	$6,284,283,170	11 / 6
2026-07-27	$2.35	$6,284,283,170	11 / 6
2026-07-28	$2.35	$6,284,283,170	11 / 6
2026-07-29	$2.35	$6,293,133,170	11 / 6
2026-07-30	$2.35	$6,303,789,143	7 / 5
2026-07-31	$2.36	$6,287,487,330	11 / 6
2026-08-01	$2.36	$6,302,060,571	6 / 5
2026-08-02	$2.36	$6,287,487,330	11 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.36	$6,302,060,571	6 / 5
2026-08-04	$2.36	$6,302,060,571	6 / 5
2026-08-05	$2.36	$6,302,060,571	6 / 5
2026-08-06	$2.36	$6,287,487,330	11 / 6
2026-08-08	$2.36	$6,287,487,330	11 / 6
2026-08-09	$2.36	$6,287,487,330	11 / 6
2026-08-10	$2.36	$6,302,060,571	7 / 5
2026-08-12	$2.36	$6,302,060,571	7 / 5
2026-08-13	$2.35	$6,027,060,570	11 / 7
2026-08-14	$2.36	$6,302,060,571	7 / 5
2026-08-15	$2.36	$6,302,060,571	7 / 5
2026-08-16	$2.36	$6,302,060,571	7 / 5
2026-08-17	$2.36	$6,302,060,571	7 / 5
2026-08-18	$2.36	$6,302,060,571	7 / 5
2026-08-19	$2.36	$6,302,060,571	7 / 5
2026-08-20	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-08-21	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-08-22	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-08-23	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-08-24	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-08-25	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-08-26	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-08-27	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-08-28	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-08-29	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-08-30	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-08-31	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-09-01	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-09-02	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-09-03	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-09-04	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-09-05	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-09-06	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-09-07	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-09-08	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-09-09	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-09-10	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-09-11	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-09-12	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-09-13	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-09-14	$2.35	$6,360,697,429	7 / 5
2026-09-15	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-09-16	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-09-17	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-09-18	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-09-19	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-09-20	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-09-21	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-09-22	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-09-23	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-09-24	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-09-25	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-09-26	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-09-27	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-09-28	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-09-29	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-09-30	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-01	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-02	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-03	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-04	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-05	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-06	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-07	$2.35	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-08	$2.34	$6,434,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-09	$2.34	$6,379,419,167	7 / 5
2026-10-10	$2.34	$6,373,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-11	$2.34	$6,373,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-12	$2.34	$6,373,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-13	$2.33	$6,373,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-14	$2.33	$6,373,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-15	$2.33	$6,373,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-16	$2.33	$6,373,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-17	$2.33	$6,373,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-18	$2.33	$6,373,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-19	$2.33	$6,373,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-20	$2.33	$6,373,919,167	7 / 5
2026-10-21	$2.33	$6,353,235,833	7 / 5
2026-10-22	$2.33	$6,353,235,833	7 / 5
2026-10-23	$2.35	$6,372,135,833	7 / 5
2026-10-24	$2.37	$6,375,469,167	7 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	0	0
2026-06-01	11	0	0
2026-07-01	11	0	0
2026-08-01	11	0	0
2026-09-01	11	0	0
2026-10-01	11	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage debt levels to avoid financial strainDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain dividend per share at $0.25Dividend per share: $0.25 per share
Improve operating income above $154 million quarterlyPublished status: Broken
Increase revenue to at least $5.94 billion in FY26Revenue: $1.282B

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Rithm Capital outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

RITM is a financial business with asset management, mortgage origination, and servicing activities. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent earnings beats are positive, but execution quality is fragile and recent performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Rithm Capital

The valuation evidence describes RITM as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative and confidence in that reading is medium. The snapshot says fragility is low and the pricing is justified, rather than reflecting a broader stack of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the latest earnings beat is encouraging, but management’s progress is mixed: asset-management AUM was stagnant quarter over quarter, and Newrez production declined in Q3. The common dividend stayed unchanged, while earnings available for distribution per share eased from Q2; the sector backdrop is a headwind, and the evidence flags a history of deep misses despite low current miss risk.

What Rithm Capital hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on scaling asset management, maintaining the dividend, and expanding mortgage origination and servicing without weakening execution. Near-term signals include whether guidance is cut, how rate changes affect the Financials sector, and whether large sector peers continue to report strong results and guidance.