Reading RICK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RICK free→Reading RICK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RICK free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable due to losses. Management's recent track record has been unsteady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $27.42. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $27 RICK trades at 33× p/e — 1.6× the 21× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $30 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 10% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted -6.96x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$159.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$437.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,880.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choice on interest rates will affect how much people spend. This will influence RCI's business.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates by 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Threatens: Address Nasdaq listing compliance issues
Noncompliance notice impacts regulatory objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
NOTICE OF DELISTING OR FAILURE TO SATISFY A CONTINUED LISTING RULE OR STANDARD; TRANSFER OF LISTING. On May 20, 2026, RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. (“we,” “us” and the “Company”) received a written notice (the “Notice”) from the Listing Qualifications Department of The Nasdaq Stock Market (“Nasdaq”) indicating that we are not in compliance with Listing Rule 5250(c)(1) because we have not yet filed our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Form 10-Q”). Under…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RICK RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | fair | elevated |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Resolve compliance issues with Nasdaq listing rules to avoid delisting.
Focus on enhancing revenue and profitability to improve overall financial health.
Increase cash flow from operations to strengthen financial stability.
Why it matters: This report will show how retail sales are doing. Strong sales could help RCI's outlook.
Confirms:Retail sales growth above 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales growth below -0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects consumer confidence and spending, which impacts RCI's sales.
Confirms:GDP growth revised upward to above 2% for Q1 2026.
Disproves:GDP growth revised downward to below 1% for Q1 2026.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On May 28, 2026, we issued a press release announcing results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026, and the filing of our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for that quarter. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On May 7, 2026, we issued a press release announcing results for the fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025, and the filing of our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for that quarter. Also on May 7, 2026, we will hold a conference call to discuss these results and related matters. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of t…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On April 9, 2026, we issued a press release announcing sales at nightclubs and sports bar-restaurants for the second fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the S…
contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including, without limitation, statements regarding the extent and potential impact of the cybersecurity incident, the means by which the unauthorized third-party accessed the internal IT system, the nature of data that may have been copied, the notification of affected parties and applicable regulatory agencies, the potential effect on our financial condition and results of operat…