Reading QTWO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track QTWO free→Reading QTWO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track QTWO free→NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, which supports QTWO's position compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment hinges on QTWO's ability to maintain guidance without cuts, as any reversal could impact credibility and performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $44.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $44 QTWO trades at 21× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $46 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $63–$77. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 5% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.90x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.67 → $0.67 (+0.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 8 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$153.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$567.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,453.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
As of June 16, 2026, the signal label changed to mixed, indicating a shift in outlook. Risk rose, suggesting a higher level of uncertainty. The sector backdrop remains a tailwind, which may support performance. The overall valuation is fair, with prices roughly in line with peers, reflecting steady recent financials and earnings quality.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this revenue target shows strong demand in digital banking.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue reported at $218 million or higher, indicating strong growth.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue below $214 million means weaker demand.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for QTWO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Q2 Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release regarding its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company's press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished in this Current Report under this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$63.00 – $77.00 (median $72.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-04-30
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
QTWO Q2 Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | fair | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving year-over-year revenue growth of 10 to 12 percent.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on increasing net income through revenue growth and cost efficiency.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is controlling costs. This can help profits.
Confirms:Operating income is better than Q1 results.
Disproves:Operating income is worse than Q1 results.
Why it matters: A drop below 10% would signal a slowdown in revenue growth. This could impact investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth stays above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: New contracts show market confidence in Q2's solutions and potential revenue growth.
Confirms:At least five new significant contracts signed with Enterprise banks or Tier 1 clients.
Disproves:Fewer than three new big contracts signed shows possible market challenges.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may affect QTWO's performance. It signals a broader trend.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Growth in net income would indicate better overall financial health. This can attract more investors.
Confirms:Net income shows growth compared to the previous quarter.
Disproves:Net income declines compared to the previous quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, Q2 Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release regarding its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company's press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished in this Current Report under this