Q2 Holdings, Inc. (QTWO)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$69.39+0.07%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Q2 Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.46 → 3.49 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	227.52M
EPS	—	0.748
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	885.04M
EPS	—	2.892
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	974.39M
EPS	—	3.492

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Net income growth through revenue and cost efficiency	Profit and net income improved strongly, with operating income rising from $11M to $27.7M.	Intact	Net income falls below $15M in any quarter of FY26	Net income: $29.858M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $26.6M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 29, 202629,858,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b5134127-c7f7-43f9-84d6-958255496bf2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income increase through cost management and efficiency	Profit and net income improved strongly, with operating income rising from $11M to $27.7M.	Intact	Operating income falls below $11M in any quarter of FY26	Operating income: $29.341M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $27.7M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 29, 202629,341,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b5134127-c7f7-43f9-84d6-958255496bf2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Year-over-year revenue growth of 10 to 12 percent	A primary condition in Q2 Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26	Revenue growth: 12.61% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202612.614528 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b5134127-c7f7-43f9-84d6-958255496bf2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $189.7 million in 2025-Q1 to $219.8 million in 2026-Q2, a 16% increase. Subscription Annualized Recurring Revenue increased 15% year-over-year by 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue growth as management has emphasized. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.49

$3.27 → $3.49 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.97B

$0.97B → $0.97B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.27	$969,379,040	10 / 12
2026-07-25	$3.32	$968,866,831	6 / 10
2026-07-26	$3.27	$969,379,040	10 / 12
2026-07-27	$3.27	$969,379,040	10 / 12
2026-07-28	$3.27	$969,379,040	10 / 12
2026-07-29	$3.27	$969,379,040	10 / 12
2026-07-30	$3.41	$971,222,040	6 / 10
2026-07-31	$3.51	$973,071,516	6 / 10
2026-08-01	$3.51	$973,071,516	6 / 10
2026-08-02	$3.28	$974,558,310	9 / 12
2026-08-03	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-04	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-05	$3.28	$974,558,310	9 / 12
2026-08-06	$3.28	$974,558,310	9 / 12
2026-08-07	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-08	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-09	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-10	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-12	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-13	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-14	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-15	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-16	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-17	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-18	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-19	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-20	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-21	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-22	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-23	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-24	$3.52	$973,836,334	6 / 10
2026-08-25	$3.45	$973,862,434	6 / 10
2026-08-26	$3.45	$973,862,434	6 / 10
2026-08-27	$3.45	$973,862,434	6 / 10
2026-08-28	$3.45	$973,862,434	6 / 10
2026-08-29	$3.45	$973,862,434	7 / 10
2026-08-30	$3.45	$973,862,434	7 / 10
2026-08-31	$3.45	$973,862,434	7 / 10
2026-09-01	$3.45	$973,862,434	7 / 10
2026-09-02	$3.45	$973,862,434	7 / 10
2026-09-03	$3.45	$973,862,434	7 / 10
2026-09-04	$3.45	$973,862,434	7 / 10
2026-09-05	$3.45	$973,862,434	7 / 10
2026-09-06	$3.45	$973,862,434	7 / 10
2026-09-07	$3.45	$973,862,434	7 / 10
2026-09-08	$3.45	$973,862,434	7 / 10
2026-09-09	$3.45	$973,862,434	7 / 10
2026-09-10	$3.45	$973,862,434	7 / 10
2026-09-11	$3.45	$973,862,434	7 / 10
2026-09-12	$3.46	$974,373,898	7 / 10
2026-09-13	$3.46	$974,373,898	7 / 10
2026-09-14	$3.46	$974,373,898	7 / 10
2026-09-15	$3.46	$974,373,898	7 / 10
2026-09-16	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-09-17	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-09-18	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-09-19	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-09-20	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-09-21	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-09-22	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-09-23	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-09-24	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-09-25	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-09-26	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-09-27	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-09-28	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-09-29	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-09-30	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-10-01	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-10-02	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-10-03	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-10-04	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-10-05	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-10-06	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-10-07	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-10-08	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-10-09	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-10-10	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-10-11	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-10-12	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-10-13	$3.46	$974,373,898	8 / 11
2026-10-14	$3.46	$974,373,898	9 / 12
2026-10-15	$3.46	$974,373,898	9 / 12
2026-10-16	$3.46	$974,373,898	9 / 12
2026-10-17	$3.46	$974,373,898	9 / 12
2026-10-18	$3.49	$974,398,983	9 / 12
2026-10-19	$3.49	$974,398,983	9 / 12
2026-10-20	$3.49	$974,392,283	9 / 12
2026-10-21	$3.49	$974,392,283	9 / 12
2026-10-22	$3.49	$974,392,283	9 / 12
2026-10-23	$3.49	$974,392,283	9 / 12
2026-10-24	$3.49	$974,393,537	9 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	2
2026-06-01	12	2
2026-07-01	10	2
2026-08-01	10	2
2026-09-01	11	2
2026-10-01	13	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

StephensOct 15

$74.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$40.70$81.40

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Net income growth through revenue and cost efficiencyNet income: $29.858M
Operating income increase through cost management and efficiencyOperating income: $29.341M
Year-over-year revenue growth of 10 to 12 percentRevenue growth: 12.61%

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Q2 Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

QTWO is a growth-oriented software business showing improving profitability, rather than a proven, consistently profitable compounder. Its multi-year view is intact, but the recent signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into Q2 Holdings, Inc.

The valuation is tagged as justified, with the model showing it about 9% above peers and expectations close to the evidence. This suggests the market already recognizes the recent operating progress, without a large expectations gap in either direction.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: revenue and subscription recurring revenue grew, while adjusted EBITDA and operating income improved. Management is on track with its stated growth and margin priorities, but the business remains loss-making overall and peer earnings trends have weakened, so execution and guidance are important.

What Q2 Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The main company-specific swing factor is whether QTWO sustains its progress and avoids reversing its recently raised guidance, which would damage management credibility. Near-term conditions may also depend on interest rates and technology-sector momentum, including results and guidance from large software peers.