Reading PZZA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PZZA free→Reading PZZA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PZZA free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly influence PZZA's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $33.16. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $33 PZZA trades at 24× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median. Our $34 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.57x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.43 → $0.45 (+3.0% / 30d). 6 raised, 6 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$176.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$487.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,312.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A bigger drop shows worse performance in North America. This affects overall growth.
Confirms:North America sales drop is more than -4% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:North America comparable sales decline is less than -2% in Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PZZA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026 , Papa John’s International, Inc. issued a press release announcing first quarter 2026 financial results. Section 9 – Financial Statements and Exhibits
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PZZA Papa John's Pizza | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | fair | elevated |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding value options and innovation to drive growth and meet customer needs.
Continue to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.46 per share to shareholders.
Focus on improving cash flow from operating activities to support business operations.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good cash flow management. It gives investors confidence.
Confirms:Management confirms the dividend remains at $0.46 for the next quarter.
Disproves:Management says they will lower the dividend to less than $0.46.
Why it matters: This partnership could attract more customers and boost sales. It shows their innovation works.
Confirms:Sales rise a lot during the Toy Story 5 promotion starting June 19, 2026.
Disproves:Sales do not increase or decline during the promotional period.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it may show a change in the consumer sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth drops below the sector median growth rate.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the sector median growth rate.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow shows better cash generation. It indicates better financial health.
Confirms:Free cash flow turns positive in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Free cash flow remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More openings would indicate strong growth plans and market confidence. This could boost future sales.
Confirms:Total new restaurant openings go over 50 in 2026.
Disproves:Total new restaurant openings fall below 40 in 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in cash flow helps keep dividends steady and supports financial health.
Confirms:Cash from operations rises above $31.3M in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities falls below $19.8M in Q2.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 26, 2026, Papa John’s International, Inc. issued a press release announcing 2025 fourth quarter and full year financial results. Section 9 – Financial Statements and Exhibits