Reading LTH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared to sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. If LTH cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.24. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 the market pays 22× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 26× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $28 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $37–$44. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 24% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.30x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.42 → $0.43 (+0.1% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 93% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 28.4% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$128.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$314.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,924.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows how well members engage and how revenue is changing.
Confirms:Q2 comparable center revenue growth prints below 6.9%.
Disproves:Center revenue growth is more than 7.5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LTH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 20, 2026, Andres Small, a Class I director, gave notice of his resignation from the Board of Directors of Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) effective May 20, 2026. On May 20, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors, upon recommendation of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, appointed Rachael Wagner to the Board of…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$37.00 – $44.00 (median $41.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Discretionary (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LTH Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | full | moderate |
SN SharkNinja | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
H Hyatt | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Life Time Group Holdings announced a share repurchase of 2,192,500 shares at $28.60 per share.
The company aims to increase its operating income through strategic initiatives.
The company is focused on increasing its net income through operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: A lower estimate would show problems in keeping profits while trying to grow.
Confirms:Net income guidance for 2026 revised below $340 million.
Disproves:Net income guidance remains at or above $340 million.
Why it matters: A rise in net income is important for financial health and investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 net income increases year over year, exceeding $88.1 million.
Disproves:Q2 net income continues to decline or stays below $88.1 million.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows the company is managing costs well. This means more profit.
Confirms:Q2 operating income rose to over $134.8 million compared to last year.
Disproves:Q2 operating income falls or stays under $134.8 million.
Why it matters: Doing this program well could increase value for shareholders and show financial strength.
Confirms:They completed share buybacks of at least $100 million.
Disproves:No share repurchases announced or completed by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Opening new clubs is key to Life Time's growth strategy and revenue expansion.
Confirms:Announcement of 6 to 7 new clubs opening in Q4 2026.
Disproves:No new clubs open in 2026 or delays in planned openings.
Why it matters: Higher net income is important for growth and for keeping investors confident.
Confirms:Net income increases by more than 15% in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Net income decreases or shows no growth in the next earnings report.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Life Time Group Holdings, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 7, 2026, Life Time Group Holdings, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), consummated the previously announced repurchase (the “Share Repurchase”) of shares of the Company’s common stock, $0.01 par value per share (the “Common Stock”), pursuant to a Share Repurchase Agreement, entered into as of May 5, 2026 (the “Agreement”), by and among the Company and certain of its stockholders, including affiliates of Leonard Green & Partners, L.P…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 5, 2026, Life Time Group Holdings, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), agreed to purchase an aggregate of 2,192,500 shares of the Company’s common stock, $0.01 par value per share (the “Common Stock”), at a price of $28.60 per share for an aggregate purchase price of $62,705,500, in a private transaction (the “Share Repurchase”) from certain of its existing stockholders, including affiliates of Leonard Green & Partners, L.P., TPG Inc. and Partners Gr…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 9, 2026, Alejandro Santo Domingo, a Class I director, gave notice of his intention to resign from the Board of Directors of Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. effective March 31, 2026. 2 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the u…