Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. (LTH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-09
$41.75-1.70%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Life Time grows revenue about 13% yearly, with raised guidance to $3.34 billion in 2026. Operating income rose to $134.8 million in Q1, showing good profit growth. The company buys back shares, supporting stock value. Member engagement and premium wellness offerings drive growth.
Net income fell from $123 million to $88.1 million in Q1, showing profit challenges. The stock trades at a high 27x PE, well above peers at 17x. Growth may slow if expenses rise or member trends weaken.
The price is about 28% above our fair value near $33 and 24% below the Street median $43. Analysts expect 14% revenue growth, roughly in line with guidance. Our view is more cautious on valuation but aligned on growth.
Breaks if: Company halts or significantly reduces share buybacks
Breaks if: Net income falls below $88 million in Q1 2026
Operating income falls below $134.8 million in Q1 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through new club openings and membership expansion. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent financial performance that remains strong relative to its industry.
The market currently reflects a premium valuation compared to peers, indicating that expectations are somewhat high. The expectations gap is narrow, suggesting that investors are not anticipating significant changes in performance in the near term.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued revenue growth driven by membership increases and new club openings. However, management's execution remains volatile, and there are moderate risks associated with the overall sector backdrop.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to successfully open new clubs and maintain revenue growth. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers and inflation trends will be critical in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 13.6% in FY26
The outlook for LTH over the next 1 to 3 years remains cautiously optimistic, but it is subject to several external factors. Not investment advice.