Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. (LTH)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$41.93-0.14%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.82 → 1.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	839.21M
EPS	—	0.368
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$3.35B–$3.38B	3.37B
EPS	—	1.596
EBITDA	$940M–$955Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.77B
EPS	—	1.825

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Continued share buybacks	A supporting condition in Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or increase buyback activity.	Intact	Company halts or significantly reduces share buybacks	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income stabilizes near $88 million	Operating income rose to $134.8 million in Q1, showing good profit growth.	Intact	Net income falls below $88 million in Q1 2026	Net income: $101.358M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $88 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 2026101,358,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 34516fd3-4d7f-46b7-b3f8-23992d78ca31. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income increases to at least $134.8 million	Operating income rose to $134.8 million in Q1, showing good profit growth.	Intact	Operating income falls below $134.8 million in Q1 2026	Operating income: $149.705M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$134.8 million operating income. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 2026149,705,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 34516fd3-4d7f-46b7-b3f8-23992d78ca31. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Annual revenue growth near 13.6%	A primary condition in Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=13.6% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 13.6% in FY26	Revenue growth: 13.73% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=13.6% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202613.72702 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 34516fd3-4d7f-46b7-b3f8-23992d78ca31. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.82

$1.95 → $1.82 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.77B

$3.72B → $3.77B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.95	$3,721,824,390	9 / 14
2026-07-25	$1.95	$3,721,824,390	9 / 14
2026-07-26	$1.95	$3,721,824,390	9 / 14
2026-07-27	$1.73	$3,721,845,777	7 / 11
2026-07-28	$1.95	$3,721,824,390	9 / 14
2026-07-29	$1.95	$3,717,694,460	9 / 14
2026-07-30	$1.95	$3,717,694,460	9 / 14
2026-07-31	$1.97	$3,724,656,030	10 / 14
2026-08-01	$1.76	$3,737,945,542	7 / 11
2026-08-02	$1.97	$3,724,656,030	10 / 14
2026-08-03	$2.01	$3,742,821,780	10 / 14
2026-08-04	$2.01	$3,742,821,780	10 / 14
2026-08-05	$2.03	$3,758,831,070	10 / 14
2026-08-06	$2.03	$3,749,675,280	10 / 14
2026-08-07	$1.80	$3,746,789,740	7 / 11
2026-08-08	$1.80	$3,746,789,740	7 / 11
2026-08-09	$1.80	$3,746,789,740	7 / 11
2026-08-10	$2.03	$3,758,831,070	10 / 14
2026-08-12	$1.80	$3,746,789,740	7 / 11
2026-08-13	$1.80	$3,746,789,740	7 / 11
2026-08-14	$1.80	$3,746,789,740	7 / 11
2026-08-15	$1.80	$3,746,789,740	7 / 11
2026-08-16	$1.80	$3,746,789,740	7 / 11
2026-08-17	$1.80	$3,746,789,740	7 / 11
2026-08-18	$1.80	$3,746,789,740	7 / 11
2026-08-19	$1.80	$3,746,789,740	7 / 11
2026-08-20	$1.82	$3,768,953,860	7 / 11
2026-08-21	$1.82	$3,768,953,860	7 / 11
2026-08-22	$1.82	$3,768,953,860	7 / 11
2026-08-23	$1.82	$3,768,953,860	7 / 11
2026-08-24	$1.82	$3,768,953,860	7 / 11
2026-08-25	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-08-26	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-08-27	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-08-28	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-08-29	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-08-30	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-08-31	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-01	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-02	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-03	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-04	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-05	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-06	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-07	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-08	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-09	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-10	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-11	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-12	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-13	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-14	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-15	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-16	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-17	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-18	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-19	$1.82	$3,770,741,574	7 / 11
2026-09-20	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-09-21	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-09-22	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-09-23	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-09-24	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-09-25	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-09-26	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-09-27	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-09-28	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-09-29	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-09-30	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-10-01	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-10-02	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-10-03	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-10-04	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-10-05	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-10-06	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-10-07	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-10-08	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-10-09	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-10-10	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-10-11	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-10-12	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-10-13	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-10-14	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-10-15	$1.82	$3,773,243,860	7 / 11
2026-10-16	$1.82	$3,772,922,789	7 / 11
2026-10-17	$1.82	$3,772,922,789	7 / 11
2026-10-18	$1.82	$3,772,988,789	8 / 11
2026-10-19	$1.82	$3,772,988,789	8 / 11
2026-10-20	$1.82	$3,772,988,789	8 / 11
2026-10-21	$1.82	$3,772,988,789	7 / 11
2026-10-22	$1.82	$3,772,988,789	7 / 11
2026-10-23	$1.82	$3,772,988,789	7 / 11
2026-10-24	$1.82	$3,772,988,789	7 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	13	1
2026-06-01	13	1
2026-07-01	13	1
2026-08-01	15	1
2026-09-01	14	0
2026-10-01	14	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Continued share buybacksQualitative condition
Net income stabilizes near $88 millionNet income: $101.358M
Operating income increases to at least $134.8 millionOperating income: $149.705M
Annual revenue growth near 13.6%Revenue growth: 13.73%

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

LTH is a growth-oriented fitness and athletic club business, with a durable premium reflected in its valuation. Its multi-year thesis is intact, and the latest signal shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though company quality has weakened and management is rated neutral.

What's priced into Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 1.75 premium measure and a durable-premium explanation; the model has low confidence. Pricing is tagged as justified, with no fragility flags, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations, but a modest expectations gap remains.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and club openings appear on track: revenue rose from $706 million in 2025-Q1 to $866 million in 2026-Q2, and six of the planned new clubs had opened by Q2. Membership also grew, while capital spending is rising sharply and its execution is mixed. Recent results are in the top half of the industry, but the miss-risk estimate is 28%, and peers have recently missed.

What Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on LTH continuing to open clubs as planned and turning membership growth and in-center offerings into sustained revenue growth. A reversal of recently raised guidance would damage confidence; stronger or weaker results and guidance from sector bellwethers HAS, GOLF, and MAT could also shift the sector backdrop.