Reading KEX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KEX free→Reading KEX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KEX free→NYSEIndustrialsMarine ShippingSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, though KEX trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $141.57. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $142 KEX trades at 22× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $157 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $138–$160. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 10% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.62 → $1.62 (-0.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 4 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$97.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$228.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,383.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Changes in earnings guidance can show shifts in market conditions or performance.
Confirms:Management raises the full-year earnings per share growth guidance above 15%.
Disproves:Management lowers the full-year earnings per share growth guidance below 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KEX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Kirby Corporation (“Kirby” or the "Company") issued a press release announcing results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. EBITDA, a non-GAAP financial measure, is used in the press release. Kirby defines EBITDA as net earnings attributable to Kirby before interest expense, taxes on income, and depreciation and amortization. Kirby has historically e…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$138.00 – $160.00 (median $158.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-01
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KEX Kirby Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | elevated |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CW Curtiss-Wright | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRS Carpenter Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ATI ATI Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | full | elevated |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Improve operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Aim to increase cash generated from operations to support growth.
Why it matters: Lower earnings growth may mean less demand or problems in operations. This can hurt investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 earnings per share growth reported below 5%.
Disproves:Q2 earnings per share growth reported above 5%.
Why it matters: More cash from operations means Kirby can invest in growth. This is important for future plans.
Confirms:Cash from operations goes up compared to Q1.
Disproves:Cash from operations goes down compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Growth in power generation revenue helps the company's performance and cash flow.
Confirms:Power generation revenue goes up by more than 45% from last year.
Disproves:Power generation revenue growth is under 10% from last year.
Why it matters: Better operating income means Kirby is controlling costs well. This helps long-term profits.
Confirms:Operating income goes up from the last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income goes down or stays the same from the last quarter.
Why it matters: Lower use may show weaker demand in the inland marine market. This can hurt revenue.
Confirms:Inland marine barge use is below 90%.
Disproves:Inland marine barge use is above 90%.
Why it matters: Barge utilization rates show demand strength in marine transport. This affects revenue.
Confirms:Inland barge use rates are over 90% this quarter.
Disproves:Inland barge use rates are below 85% this quarter.
Why it matters: If the sector grows faster, Kirby may benefit. This could improve its revenue outlook.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth speeds up above 6% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth slows further below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher cash flow helps support growth and returns for shareholders. It shows strong operations.
Confirms:Operational cash flow is above $675 million for the quarter.
Disproves:Operational cash flow is below $575 million for the quarter.
was approved by the following vote: For 46,508,624 Against 1,694,432 Abstain 201,535 Broker non-votes 1,754,185 5. Amendment of the 2000 Nonemployee Director Stock Plan was approved by the following vote: For 47,857,497 Against 361,839 Abstain 185,255 Broker non-votes 1,754,185 A copy of the 2000 Nonemployee Director Stock Plan as so amended and restated is attached hereto as Exhibit 10.2 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 26, 2026, Kirby Corporation (“Kirby”) entered into an amended and restated credit agreement (the “2031 Credit Agreement”) with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (“JPMorgan”), as administrative agent, and certain lenders and issuing banks party thereto. The 2031 Credit Agreement amends and restates in its entirety Kirby’s existing credit agreement, dated as of July 29, 2022 (the “2027 Credit Agreement”), extending the term of the facility to March 2…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On March 26, 2026, Kirby borrowed $200 million under the revolving credit facility described in
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 16, 2026, the Board of Directors of Kirby Corporation (“Kirby”) expanded the size of the Board of Directors from nine to ten directors and elected Tracy A. Embree to fill the vacancy, to serve as a Class I director until the Annual Meeting of Stockholders in 2026. The Board of Directors determined that Ms. Embree will serve as an indepe…