Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-10-30
$304.00+0.69%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put UNP beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Industrials is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 7% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 22% growth a year, above the roughly 8% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskUNP’s thesis rests on pricing strength and merger progress supporting durable earnings growth. Revenue growth accelerated from 3% to 15% year over year, with three straight quarterly EPS beats. Third-quarter 2026 revenue grew 15% year over year, and EPS beat consensus by 1.7%. UNP trades at 24× P/E versus a 22× peer median; expectations look full. The next-quarter miss probability is 20%, and high fuel costs temper pricing strength. The 24× multiple has to be earned against peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% below where it trades. Our read remains intact, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. UNP is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 25 analysts currently covering UNP (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for UNP in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNP Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Industrials (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put UNP next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Achieve the three-year EPS growth target
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $304.00
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $304.00.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Affirms high-single-digit EPS growth while higher capex signals continued investment.
Advances: Maintain pricing dollars in excess of inflation
Pricing strength supports pricing objectives; elevated fuel costs temper earnings and operating performance.
Advances: Maintain pricing dollars in excess of inflation
Quarterly profit growth attributed to pricing strength supports pricing discipline and earnings objectives.
Advances: Complete merger to create America’s first transcontinental railroad
Merger discussions signal progress towards transcontinental railroad.
Advances: Complete merger to create America’s first transcontinental railroad
Merger progress aligns with growth objectives.
Threatens: Complete merger to create America’s first transcontinental railroad
Fuel surcharge surplus may complicate merger negotiations.
Advances: Maintain pricing dollars in excess of inflation
Fuel cost management enhances pricing power and profitability.
Advances: Achieve earnings per share growth consistent with 3-year CAGR target
Earnings beat supports EPS growth target.
