Reading UNP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UNP free→Reading UNP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track UNP free→NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from UNP and the performance of sector bellwethers like CSX and NSC, as these could significantly impact estimates. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $267.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $267 UNP trades at 23× p/e, below its 26× p/e peer median. Our $289 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $273–$315. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 8% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.32x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.13 → $3.13 (+0.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 65% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.0% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$77.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$212.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,228.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Union Pacific meets its EPS growth targets. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Q2 diluted EPS exceeds $2.93, indicating strong earnings growth.
Confirms the other:Q2 diluted EPS is below $2.87. This shows weaker earnings.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Merger supports growth and market position.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Union Pacific Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$273.00 – $315.00 (median $295.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-06-05
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UNP Union Pacific Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving earnings per share growth consistent with the 3-year CAGR target of high-single to low-double digit.
Ensure strong service to meet customer demand despite a muted economic forecast.
Implement pricing strategies that exceed inflationary pressures.
Why it matters: This data can affect demand for rail services and the economy.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is reported above 2%. This shows stronger economic conditions.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is reported below 1%. This signals a possible economic slowdown.
Why it matters: Earnings per share growth is crucial for meeting investor expectations. A miss could hurt sentiment.
Confirms:EPS growth reported below mid-single digits in Q2.
Disproves:EPS growth meets or exceeds mid-single digits in Q2.
Why it matters: Freight revenue growth is vital for Union Pacific's overall performance. It reflects demand and pricing power.
Confirms:Freight revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Freight revenue growth is less than 3% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Good service helps keep customers. It also helps make more money.
Confirms:Service metrics show improvement. They meet or exceed customer demand.
Disproves:Service metrics are still lagging. This leads to unhappy customers.
Why it matters: Progress on the regulatory process is critical for the merger with Norfolk Southern. Delays could impact growth.
Confirms one read:Good news about regulations shows progress on the merger.
Confirms the other:Expect more delays or bad news about approvals.
Why it matters: Pricing above inflation helps keep profits and supports margins.
Confirms:Pricing growth is reported above inflation rates in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Pricing growth falls below inflation rates, squeezing margins.
Why it matters: Meeting EPS targets shows progress in financial health and growth strategy.
Confirms:Q2 EPS growth meets or exceeds management's target of a positive growth rate.
Disproves:Q2 EPS growth did not meet management's target. This shows ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: Better service metrics show that Union Pacific is meeting customer needs more.
Confirms:Service metrics are getting better. On-time delivery rates are over 80%.
Disproves:Service metrics are getting worse. On-time delivery rates are below 70%.
Why it matters: The operating ratio is a key measure of efficiency. A rise could indicate rising costs or inefficiencies.
Confirms:Operating ratio reported worse than 60.5% in Q2.
Disproves:Operating ratio gets better below 60.5% in Q2.
Why it matters: News about the merger will affect Union Pacific's growth and market position.
Confirms:Approval from the Surface Transportation Board is granted for the merger.
Disproves:The merger may face big delays or get rejected by regulators.
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth may mean a recovery for Union Pacific.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth is speeding up to about 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Pricing growth above inflation shows Union Pacific can manage costs and keep margins.
Confirms:Pricing growth exceeds inflation by more than 1% in Q2.
Disproves:Pricing growth is less than inflation in Q2.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 27, 2026, Union Pacific Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The Board of Directors (the Board) of Union Pacific Corporation (the Company) elected W. Anthony Will, age 60, to serve on the Board as a director of the Company, effective January 5, 2026. Mr. Will will serve on the Board’s Audit and Finance Committees. Mr. Will currently serves as President and Chief Executive Officer of CF Industries Holdings, I…
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on July 28, 2025, Union Pacific Corporation, a Utah corporation (“ Union Pacific ”) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) by and among Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern Corporation, a Virginia corporation (“ Norfolk Southern ”), Ruby Merger Sub 1 Corporation, a Virginia corporation and a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Union Pacific (“ Merger Sub 1 ”) and Ruby Merger Sub 2 LLC, a Virginia limited liability company and a…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 23, 2025, Union Pacific Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.