Reading ETN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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Track ETN free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
As of June 16, 2026, ETN shows strong recent financial performance, but management's track record has been volatile, and its capital stance is capital unfriendly. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, while risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on whether ETN cuts guidance on the next call, which could negatively impact estimates and the stock price.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $407.62. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $408 ETN trades at 34× p/e, in line with its 34× p/e peer median. Our $392 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $428–$500. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 4% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.19x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.12 → $3.07 (-1.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 8 cut, 22 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 76% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$134.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$373.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,914.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The merger is key for Eaton's 2030 growth strategy and could boost margins and growth.
Confirms:The merger will close in Q1 2027 as planned. This shows they are aligned.
Disproves:The merger has delays or does not close. This shows they are making mistakes.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Organic growth of 9-11% in 2026
Merger enhances growth potential in mobility sector.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Eaton Corporation plc issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$428.00 – $500.00 (median $480.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electrical Components & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ETN Eaton Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
VRT Vertiv | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EMR Emerson Electric | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BE Bloom Energy Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | high |
AME Ametek | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | low |
18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 8 guided quarters · 17.9% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Eaton aims to achieve segment margins between 24.6% and 25.0% for the full year 2026.
Eaton aims to increase earnings per share by 6% in 2026 compared to 2025.
Eaton targets organic growth of 9-11% for the full year 2026.
Eaton aims to sustain growth in earnings per share on a quarterly basis.
Why it matters: The deal with Dana is key for Eaton's focus on higher growth areas. It could boost margins and growth rates.
Confirms:The deal will close in Q1 2027 as planned. This shows a clear focus.
Disproves:The deal faces delays or fails to close, indicating strategic missteps.
Why it matters: Maintaining EPS growth is key to meeting the 6% annual target for 2026.
Confirms:Q2 EPS growth reported at or above 1% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 EPS growth reported below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: This margin shows good cost control and efficient operations.
Confirms:Segment margins reported at or above 24.6% for 2026.
Disproves:Segment margins are below 24.6%. This points to some operational problems.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising EPS guidance shows trust in financial results and market conditions.
Confirms:Earnings per share guidance remains at or above 6% growth for 2026.
Disproves:EPS guidance is lower now. This suggests possible weakness in performance.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth could show a good change in the industrial sector.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported above 8% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth reported below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong growth shows Eaton can meet market demand. It also shows they can follow their plan.
Confirms:Q2 organic growth reported at or above 9% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 organic growth falls below 9%, raising concerns about market demand.
Why it matters: M&A activity can change growth plans and money health. Ending deals may show problems.
Confirms:Announcement of new M&A deals or partnerships that enhance growth.
Disproves:No new M&A activity or more deal terminations.
Why it matters: Details on the spin-off will clarify Eaton's future focus and growth strategy.
Confirms one read:Eaton gives clear details on the spin-off. They explain the expected benefits.
Confirms the other:Eaton delays or gives unclear details on the spin-off. This raises concerns.
Advances: Organic growth of 9-11% in 2026
Strong demand supports growth outlook for merged entity.
Advances: Increase EPS by 6% in 2026
AI focus aligns with EPS growth strategy.
Advances: Organic growth of 9-11% in 2026
Stock surge indicates positive market reaction to growth focus.
Advances: Organic growth of 9-11% in 2026
Positive comments on data center demand support growth.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Chief Financial Officer Appointment On March 2, 2026, Eaton Corporation plc (the “Company”) announced that David B. Foster has been appointed on February 26, 2026 as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Eaton Corporation, effective March 2, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Mr. Foster will serve as the Company’s principal financial of…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On March 6, 2026, Eaton Corp closed its sale of 3.850% notes due 2028 in the principal amount of $1,500.0 million (the “ 2028 U.S. Notes ”); 3.950% notes due 2029 in the principal amount of $1,500.0 million (the “ 2029 U.S. Notes ”); 4.200% notes due 2031 in the principal amount of $1,500.0 million (the “ 2031 U.S. Notes ”); 4.500% notes due 2033 in the principal amount of $1,000.0 million (the “ 20…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 6, 2026, Eaton Corporation (“ Eaton Corp ”), a subsidiary of Eaton Corporation plc (the “ Company ”), terminated the $8,000,000,000 term credit agreement (the “ Term Credit Agreement ”) entered into on February 6, 2026 with the Company, Eaton Capital Unlimited Company (“ Eaton Capital ”), a subsidiary of the Company, and certain other subsidiaries of the Company that become eligible borrowers, certain subsidiaries of the Company as guar…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 25, 2026, the Compensation and Organization Committee (the “Committee”) of the Board of Directors of Eaton Corporation plc (the “Company”) established corporate performance criteria that will be used to determine the amount of 2026 executive incentive compensation awards that will be paid, if earned, after the end of the annual performa…