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Track ETN free→Eaton Corporation (ETN)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$407.62+0.14%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
As of June 16, 2026, ETN shows strong recent financial performance, but management's track record has been volatile, and its capital stance is capital unfriendly. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, while risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on whether ETN cuts guidance on the next call, which could negatively impact estimates and the stock price.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Specialty Industrial Machinery
- Market cap
- $151.98B
- Employees
- 97,303
- IPO date
- 2012-11-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $407.62. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$390.42consensus
Range $361.96 – $409.93
vs price: +4% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$645.33consensus
Range $614.85 – $722.64
vs price: -37% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $408 ETN trades at 34× p/e, in line with its 34× p/e peer median. Our $392 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $428–$500. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
33.5x
peer 33.5x · own history 30.9x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
4%
our forecast 18%
Our fair value
$391.55
range $362.54 – $409.95
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 4% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
70th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.19x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
31st pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish22 analysts, 76% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $3.12 → $3.07 (-1.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 8 cut, 22 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 76% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme aerospace-recovery.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Guidance credibility
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$134.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$373.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,914.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- UpsideHigh confidenceYear+active 4d
Watch for completion of the Mobility Group and Dana merger
Why it matters: The merger is key for Eaton's 2030 growth strategy and could boost margins and growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The merger will close in Q1 2027 as planned. This shows they are aligned.
Disproves:The merger has delays or does not close. This shows they are making mistakes.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-124d agoYahoo! Finance
Advances: Organic growth of 9-11% in 2026
Merger enhances growth potential in mobility sector.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like GEV, PH, and CMI keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting ETN and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ETN raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-11), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If ETN cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-11), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like GEV, PH, and CMI start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping ETN and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits ETN and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Eaton Corporation plc issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-8.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.