Reading WWD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WWD free→Reading WWD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WWD free→NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, WWD is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The outlook hinges on sector trends and guidance changes. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $402.50. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $402 WWD trades at 49× p/e — 1.4× the 33× p/e peer median, and above its own 36× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $281 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $415–$470. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 43% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 24%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.10x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.44 → $2.44 (-0.3% / 30d). 10 raised, 0 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$128.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$322.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,525.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: An update to sales growth guidance will show how demand is holding up. This is key for future earnings.
Confirms:Management raises Q3 sales growth guidance above 20% year over year.
Disproves:Management lowers Q3 sales growth guidance below 14% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WWD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 2, 2026, Terence J. Voskuil notified Woodward, Inc. of his intention to retire from his position as Executive Vice President, Chief Technology Officer, Aerospace, effective October 2, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Mr. Voskuil will continue to serve in his current role until the Effective Date. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the S…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$415.00 – $470.00 (median $450.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-05
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electrical Components & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WWD Woodward, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ETN Eaton Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
VRT Vertiv | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EMR Emerson Electric | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BE Bloom Energy Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | high |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on raising full-year sales and earnings guidance due to strong demand and execution.
Continue to improve operating income through strategic investments and price realization.
Maintain disciplined capital allocation with a focus on strategic investments and shareholder returns.
Why it matters: Free cash flow trends will show if the company can sustain its dividend and investments.
Confirms:Free cash flow in Q2 drops below $30 million.
Disproves:Free cash flow in Q2 exceeds $50 million.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would support management's goal of increasing revenue. It shows the company is on track despite sector challenges.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in money use can show how the company plans to grow.
Confirms:Management shares a new plan to invest money for growth.
Disproves:Management says it will focus on paying off debt instead of growing.
Why it matters: Higher margins show good cost management. They also show pricing power in a tough market.
Confirms:Aerospace segment earnings margin is above 23.5% for the fiscal year.
Disproves:Aerospace earnings margin is under 23%.
Why it matters: Higher capital expenditures may show strong growth plans. But they could hurt cash flow.
Confirms one read:Spending is over $290 million for the fiscal year.
Confirms the other:Spending is under $290 million for the fiscal year.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Revolving Credit Agreement On May 28, 2026, Woodward, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into that certain Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Revolving Credit Agreement”), by and among the Company, certain foreign subsidiary borrowers of the Company from time to time parties thereto, the institutions from time to time parties thereto, as lenders, Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, J…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure provided in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Woodward, Inc. (the "Registrant") reported its results of operations for its second quarter of fiscal year 2026. A copy of the news release issued by the Registrant concerning the foregoing results is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 22, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Woodward, Inc. (“Woodward” or the “Company”) elected Frederico F. Curado to serve on the Board, effective June 1, 2026. Mr. Curado was also appointed to the Board’s Audit Committee, effective as of the same date. Mr. Curado will serve in the class of directors with a term ending at Woodward…